• by Karl Greenberg , January 5, 2012

Could it really be that U.S. automakers are poised to become global leaders? It's not just "industry observers" who are answering in the affirmative, but lots of actual global auto executives who are saying the Detroit three will build market share worldwide over the next five years.

Some 200 senior global executives polled by financial advisory firm KPMG in its 13th annual global automotive executive survey said product innovation, continued improvement in product quality and restructuring activities are the growth drivers for domestics. And the results are much different from the same survey five years ago -- when, according to the firm, few executives saw blue sky in the future.

The consensus in the new study is that Ford is more likely to grow market share than Nissan, Toyota and Honda: when asked to predict global market share winners over the next five years, 47% said Ford would register market share gains. That puts Ford in eighth place in the growth-prediction area, up from 43% 2011 and 29% in 2010. But there is also good news for Chrysler and its Fiat partner, with almost 40% of executives saying they predict the joint companies will gain share, versus 24% for Chrysler and 31% for Fiat in last year's study. 

General Motors ranked 15th in terms of the number of executives predicting the Detroit automaker will gain share. Thirty-eight percent versus 40% last year said the company would gain share. Only 13% said GM would gain share when the survey was fielded in 2010.

Gary Silberg, National Automotive Industry leader for KPMG LLP, stated the obvious: it's the cars, stupid. "Investments in new products and product innovation over the past several years have helped U.S. auto manufacturers become more competitive," he said, adding that competitive products and improved quality have finally moved the glacial consumer perception needle. "As recent sales figures might demonstrate, U.S. OEMs have much stronger product portfolios, and as a result they are returning to profitability."

How quickly things can change in the world of wheels. KPMG said that in its 2007 auto study, 62% of global execs predicted a decrease in market share for U.S. OEMs, with only 14% expecting an increase. Still, 64% correctly predicted restructuring of U.S. OEMs before 2011, and 58% said restructuring would change the game for domestics. 

Still, Asian brands -- especially China-based brands that don't even sell in the U.S. -- dominate the top ten auto brands that executives predict will grow global share. The ten fastest-growing brands, based on the survey, are Volkswagen, Hyundai/Kia, BMW, Tata, BAIC Motor Co (China), SAIC Motor (China), Chery Motors (China), Ford, Nissan, Geely (China). Toyota and Honda just missed the top 10 -- ranking 11 and 12, respectively.

Said Silberg: "Given [Chinese and Indian OEM] lower current base market share levels, it is not surprising to see predicted market share growth for brands such as SAIC, Chery and Tata, although the majority of that growth will come from their domestic markets in the short-term."

Not too surprising, given the unforgiving nature of the tier-three position, brands most often predicted to lose market share in the 2012 survey include Subaru, Mitsubishi, Suzuki and Mazda.

Almost one-fifth of executives polled said the annual volume of unit sales in India will exceed five million by 2016. More than three-quarters (78%) estimate annual Indian auto sales between 3 and 5 million.