• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, September 8, 2003

In an important lagging indicator of a broader ad marketplace recovery, ad pages in the U.S. business press in June experienced their first gain since the business-to-business ad recession began in November 2000. While the upswing - a 0.9% increase - reflects relatively easy comparisons to last year when pages fell 22.8% from June 2001, it nonetheless signals a stabilization of B2B ad page erosion.

Gordon Hughes, president-CEO of American Business Media, which released the data from the Business Information Network, said page volume may continue to fluctuate for the business press later this year, but that the trade group is sticking by its forecast of a "1% to 2%" growth in ad pages for the year and "single-digit growth in early 2004."

Total ad dollars for the business press rose 4.9% in June, expanding on a first half rate of growth of 1.2%. The higher rate of ad revenue growth indicates business ad page rates have also grown, another indicator of a strengthening B2B economy.

June, First Half B2B Ad Spending

                                      June     First Half

Finance/Business/Advertising          +1.1%      -2.3% 
Telecommunications                    -0.3%     -30.3% 
Computers                            -14.9%     -12.3% 
Software
-7.0%      -8.5%   
Manufacturing/Elec. Equip./Materials  +0.2%      -4.0% 
Drugs/Toiletries                      +6.3%      +6.8% 
Horticulture/Farming                 +15.3%      -9.0%

Services/Direct Response/Classified   +22.6%     +10.8% 
Retail                               +22.3%     +16.3% 
Home/Building                         +3.4%      +5.5% 
Automotive
+34.2%     +30.9% 
Travel                               -26.6%     -15.4% 
Total                                 +4.9%      +1.2% 

Source: Business Information Network, a joint venture of American Business Media and TNS Media Intelligence/CMR.

Industry analysts consider a turnaround in B2B ad spending an important indicator, because marketers traditionally do not increase business ad budgets until they are confident they are in a sustainable economic expansion.

Nonetheless, the B2B turnaround is far from even. Not surprisingly, key categories such as travel and computer hardware and software continue to lag, though other key categories appear to have stabilized, including telecommunications. And in a strong indicator for the ad industry itself, spending actually rose 1.1% in June among financial, business and advertising trade publications.

But even within those categories some continue to suffer. The Wall Street Journal's ad pages slipped 10.0% in August and have fallen 8.9% through the first eight months of 2003, according to estimates released Monday by parent Dow Jones & Co. The Journal was especially hard hit by cutbacks in B2B ad spending, as financial ad pages plummeted 40.3% in August and fell 27.0% through the first eight months.