TV Upfront Fits And Starts, CW Is Done

While the upfront process for the biggest broadcast networks is still moving in fits and starts, the mini-broadcast network CW has started and finished its upfront deal-making.

According to media executives, the CBS-Warner Bros.-owned CW earned cost-per-thousand viewer price gains of 5% to 6%, nearing a 75% TV commercial sellout. Overall, this brings CW to a low $400 million and $410 million with revenue coming from traditional TV on-air, as well as online and mobile apps -- about the same level as a year ago. 

This is the third year that CW has sold its traditional and new digital video platforms together. CW looks to a broader list of advertisers -- and is no longer just a women 18- to-34-centric channel, but is also growing with young male viewers. A CW spokesman had no comment.

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Other networks are at a standstill. Fox is mostly done, at around 70% of its upfront selling inventory, while ABC is slightly behind. CBS and NBC, for the most part, have not yet begun. One media executive believes that media agency holding company Group M -- which represents around a third of all TV upfront media dollars -- only recently registered its clients' budgets with CBS.

New estimates are that the marketplace is looking at more modest 4% to 8% gains when it comes to the cost per thousand viewers among key 18-49 and 25-54 viewer groups. Earlier estimates were pegged at 5% to 9% hikes. 

"The market is developing slowly," says one media agency executive. "No one is rushing. Deals are being done here and there. Seems the market is a tick or 2 [percentage points] below last year's CPM increases. Last year's 7% is this year's 5%."

NBCUniversal has been slower-moving, according to media-buying agency executives. An NBC spokeswoman would not comment about upfront deal-making. 

Some media executives believe this is partly due to its push to sell broadcast and cable networks together in big packages -- as well as the high pricing that NBCU ad executives are seeking for its USA Network because of new high-profile "Modern Family" reruns that are set to air on the network. 

Deemed to be a major part of a revamped prime-time schedule, USA Network is looking for pricing for the big network sitcom -- which airs on ABC -- comparable to that of TBS's "Big Bang Theory" and other high-profile off-broadcast network sitcoms, according to media agency executives.

In effect, this means the "base" prices that marketers get on USA Network -- the prices from of which annual percentage CPM hikes are added each season -- would dramatically change. At least two media agency buyers believe that as a result, marketers may look to shift budgets to other networks.

For some years now, media agency executives have said USA Network has been sold to advertisers generally at lower prime-time cost per thousands than comparable general interest cable networks such as TNT and TBS.

TV upfront revenue estimates for broadcast networks at that now they might see an overall 2% to 3% reduction off its $9.3 billion take from year ago. Cable networks could climb 2% to 5% from its $9.8 billion base of a year ago.

"It's a slow-moving market with broadcast network dollars down, slightly up for cable," observes Marc Morse, senior vp of national broadcast for media agency RJ Palmer.

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