• by Wayne Friedman , November 22, 2013

Retransmission fees are set to double in five years -- even as multichannel subscriber growth slows.

SNL Kagan estimates that retrans fees paid by cable, satellite, and telco TV channel distributors will reach $7.6 billion by 2019  -- up from $3.3 billion this year.

Kagan says those numbers come from rising per-month subscribers' fees for TV station owners, as well as the consolidation of the TV station business. Recently, reports suggested that CBS -- concluding its deal with Time Warner Cable -- will receive $2 a month per subscriber, up from just under $1 per month per subscriber.

All this caused SNL Kagan to revise its retrans revenues to increase to $7.15 billion by 2018, versus an earlier 2018 projection of $6.05 billion.

TV network/station owned companies will increasingly benefit from the affiliate reverse retrans funds they get from their station affiliates -- rising to $2.25 billion in 2019 from $1.02 billion in 2014.

All this will occur even as there will be a slowdown in the growth of multichannel subscribers. SNL Kagan now estimates projected growth of 100.6 million in 2018. It had estimated this to be 103.7 million. By the end of 2011, it was 100.4 million.