A Modest Uptick Forecast For Media, Ad, Entertainment Biz in 2104

Although one credit rating agency, Fitch Ratings, expects a “stable outlook” for most media, advertising and entertainment businesses in 2014, core advertising spending growth will track below previous historical models.

Media and advertising businesses will get a lift from political and Olympic spending in 2014. But it won’t be enough to track at normal estimates -- typically 1% to 2% above real growth domestic product (GDP) growth.

Fitch Ratings estimates that real growth domestic product growth will climb 2.6% in 2014.

That said, Fitch predicts a “modest acceleration” in advertising revenue next year as companies continue to invest in marketing. It says there will continue to be an “ongoing shift of advertising dollars from local to national and from print mediums to digital.”

Looking at some specific media: Cable network advertising revenue will rise 5% and 6%; network TV will be flat. Local broadcasting will see low- to mid-single-digit advertising revenue gains.

Magazines will see mid-single-digit percentage declines. Newspaper advertising revenue will sink at a mid -to high-single-digit pace. Outdoor advertising will achieve some revenue hikes year-to-year from growing digital billboard business.

"Watching TV" photo from Shutterstock.



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