Commentary
How Networks' Counts Of Mobile, Tablets Will Change The TV Scene This Year
- by P.J. Bednarski , Staff Writer @pjbtweet, September 17, 2014
The new television season is beginning -- and there’s that unmistakable excitement among the populace. Imagine, once upon a time, the new season began at the same time the Big 3 automakers introduced their new models. Back then, some people exploded with anticipation. Others fainted. Bedwettting increased.
Now, things are somewhat calmer, as many of us recognize that almost every new thing on CBS, NBC, ABC and Fox will fail.
But one thing that makes this season exciting, at least in some corners, is that for the first time Nielsen will be adding in viewership from phones and tablets -- and this means, invariably, that viewership stats will look very different.
By some measures, broadcasters have been pretty much beaten up the last, oh, 30 years, as cable, and VCRs and DVDs and DVRs and then online media content providers began mucking up broadcasters’ direct path to the bank. They still made their deposits -- even larger than before -- but the business got complicated by all those different platforms that younger viewers liked better. Or so it seems.
When Nielsen expands its networks' viewership numbers to include smartphones and iPads, everybody believes network programs will discover millions of younger viewers, which will create new life for networks where the media age of viewers is 55.
“No matter what they slap on the air this fall, television execs can bank on a nice ratings boost,” wrote Claire Atkinson of the New York Post last week. She quotes Steve Hasker, Nielsen’s president of global product leadership, predicting that at the very least that network ratings will be “flat or up” this season. It sounds almost like Nielsen found a new small state it forgot to measure before. Rhode Island, welcome to the Nielsen family!
Pushing more people to watch TV programs online may also get them away from DVRing them. Viewers can fast-forward through DVRed shows; networks can make that much more difficult, or impossible, on VOD versions, David Poltrack, the veteran CBS research guru tells the Post.
One possible after-effect might also be that networks, and advertisers, find out a much broader--and older--audience is also watching TV via tablets, phones and other devices. That in turn could create a market for online video programming that is not dominated by frat boy, gross-out content.
Who am I kidding? Because of the Nielsen expansion to smartphone and iPad measurements added to the regular Nielsen numbers, it's more likely that networks will aim down, not up. That’s always where the money seems to be.
P.J. Bednarski has written for MediaPost since 2012 on media and marketing topics. He can be reached at pj@mediapost.com
Just keep in mind that tablet and mobile users can only be reported if the various programmers have signed up to use the Nielsen technology. Early numbers will be decidedly below expectations as they will NOT represent the entire universe of streaming viewers. The media need to know that!
P.J. Please get a grip. And stop doing what looks like PR for The Nielsen Company. You write: "But one thing that makes this season exciting ... Nielsen will be adding in viewership from phones and tablets -- and this means, invariably, that viewership stats will look very different. ... Steve Hasker, Nielsen’s president of global product leadership, predicting that at the very least that network ratings will be “flat or up” this season." How audacious a prediction! That must be just the kind of "thought leadership" that Lynda Clarizio described to Joe Mandese this morning. P.J., you and Mr. Hasker have covered all two bases. Clearly, this isn't baseball. It must be cricket! To me, however, it sounds like nonsense. If you are writing about US TV Ratings, here are the numbers to have on hand in the weeks and months ahead: The denominators for your future calculations of ratings change are 116,300,000 US TV Households and 296,000,000 persons 2+. Do you really believe that TV, on average, will grow by more than a tenth of a rating point overall? I don't mean that a tenth of a rating point is not worth a network's trouble these days. What I do mean to do is ask: What is a tenth of a rating point worth when it is divided 250 or 500 ways. I wonder who is paying for enhanced Nielsen measurement in the Fall of 2014? "Invariably," the ROI will be de minimis, as will the change in "viewership stats." Or so it seems at this juncture. Let's circle back, when the time is right. Onwards and upwards. Nick
I would expect the data to be lower than market expectations. That is because as a market we have been fed stream counts, video starts etc. In order to have mobile, tablet, desktop and laptop viewing sit beside television viewing three things are absolutely essential. First, all data stream must pass through the same validation processed (or their channels equivalent). Second, all of that validated viewing data must be reported as 'average minute audience' (which is way lower than streams and starts). Third, all cross-device and multiple-viewing must be de-duplicated. Given Steve's comments of "flat or up" I'm guessing that progress on these fronts is on track. Cheers. JG.
Give it a rest, John. Your jingoism for Steve, Nieslen and all things bright, shiny and new (i.e., digital) are unbecoming an arm's-length commentator. Do not conflate Australian market measurement standards (whatever they may be) with the United States. De-duplication is the least of the challenges for US Television Audience Measurement, given the nature of Nielsen's GTAM methodology. Just chill. Nick
Thanks for your unnecessary and absolutely useless reply Nicholas. Feel free to comment when you have something of value to add, otherwise, please don't bother. Better off tending to the 'roos loose in your top paddock.
I am afraid that only MediaPost shall be the editor for my commentary. I shall de-duplicate your missives to avoid boredom with nonsense. Please don't be so sour so early in in the Australian day. G'day mate.
Yawn. Didn't see that coming. BTW add this to your family collection .. http://cache2.allpostersimages.com/p/LRG/37/3778/U21IF00Z/posters/the-partridge-family.jpg
John, If a picture is worth a thousand words, you have indicted yourself. Thank you for saving me the time and trouble. Nick
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_lMHdYVxOlEI/S-1nqCq2AcI/AAAAAAAABMg/BG3EfctfiK4/s400/KettleCallingPotBlack.jpg
To all concerned, I believe the following to be as true of MediaPost as it is of Time: “TIME (Magazine) approaches hard questions with a conviction that smart people of good will can disagree fiercely – but that discourse can be reasoned, enlightening, even entertaining. I don’t believe debate divides us; it draws us together, because the premise is that we are looking for the best answer…” - Nancy Gibbs, first female Managing Editor of TIME magazine - All the best, Nicholas P. Schiavone
#JohnGronoIsObsessedWithNicholasSchiavone'sWriting
Sorry Nick but poor old John has been too busy being feted by the local industry to respond. I'm as disappointed as you are I promise but I'm sure he will rejoin the discussion soon.
http://www.adnews.com.au/news/john-grono-inducted-to-mfa-hall-of-fame
#JohnGronoIsObsessedWithAnythingMeasurementRelated
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