Global advertising will grow 4.9% in 2015 to $538 billion, according to the latest GroupM forecast released Monday. That prediction is based on an estimate of 3.9% growth in 2014 to $513 billion, which is a downgrade from the 4.5% growth the WPP media agency group had forecast for this year in June.
In the U.S. the firm has forecast 3.9% ad spend growth for 2015 to $177 billion, based on estimated 2014 growth of 3.1% to $170 billion. The 2014 estimate was revised slightly downward from the 3.4% growth that GroupM had forecast in June.
GroupM said that digital again made the dominant growth contribution and turning in expected growth of 17% percent in the U.S.
"In the U.S. we have downgraded growth in 2014 from 3.4% to 3.1% driven by reduced spending in radio and print,” said Rino Scanzoni, Chief Investment Officer, North America, GroupM. “This was partially offset by growth in TV and digital. In 2015 we expect growth to accelerate to 3.9% driven by digital media. This represents a slight downward revision from our earlier 4.2% growth estimate. TV will experience a significant deceleration due to an unfavorable comparison to 2014 which includes the Sochi Olympics and an expected increase in linear TV audience erosion in both broadcast and cable negatively impacting available inventory."
Commenting on the global picture, GroupM Futures Director Adam Smith said: "The world remains short of demand and uncomfortably short of inflation. However, two stabilizing forces are the falling price of oil, which transfers spending power to the world's consumers, and shrinking trade surpluses, especially China's. Smaller surpluses help aggregate demand. The Eurozone's large surplus now makes it the biggest drag on world demand, and it remains the main headwind to ad growth".