Commentary

Late-Night TV Will Survive And Thrive After Stewart Leaves

No other television daypart gets picked apart quite like late-night, and I should know because I have done my fair share of the picking.

But it occurred to me today -- as I contemplated how I might contrive a way to continue writing about the Brian Williams and Jon Stewart stories for another day -- that late-night TV is unique in this regard, compared to other time periods.

While it’s true that prime time gets picked over and analyzed too when shows are cancelled or added, or when entire lineups are announced (as they are every year in May at the Upfronts), late-night TV gets even more of it.

Perhaps it’s because changes in prime-time programming happen so often, and there are so many of them occurring more or less continuously. Late-night TV, on the other hand, has comparatively fewer shows and fewer changes, which has created a situation where the stars of late-night television have emerged as the biggest stars on television, period – even if many prime-time shows far outdraw them in total audience.

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So Stewart’s announcement has already resulted in the usual raft of breathless columns declaring the arrival of another earthquake in the late-night terra firma whose ramifications threaten to alter the topography forever.

That’s an exaggeration, but also true, in a sense. When one guy leaves (and it’s almost always a “guy,” other than Chelsea Handler), a couple of million people who have been accustomed to watching him will soon have to make a decision about whether to continue watching the same show with a new host or go elsewhere.

So for Comedy Central, the twin losses of Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert within the same one-year time frame are significant indeed. Comedy Central has many valuable shows, but it is widely assumed that “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart” and “The Colbert Report” were at the top of that list.

Okay, so it’s a big deal for Comedy Central and certainly for Jon Stewart fans who have formed the habit of watching him every night and who will feel his absence most acutely. For the rest of us, he’s just another TV host who is planning to leave who will then be replaced by someone else who will take some getting used-to for a time, but not for long.

In other words, Stewart’s exit does not represent a potential earthquake, any more than Jay Leno’s was an earthquake last year. In a way, David Letterman’s retirement this coming May is the most significant (but not an earthquake) because he’s the last of his generation of late-night hosts to call it a day. 

However, Letterman’s exit will be softened somewhat by the arrival of Stephen Colbert on “Late Show” next fall. While I usually try to shy away from prognostications -- because my record of success as a forecaster has been generally abysmal -- I don’t mind going out on a limb here to predict that the Colbert-Fallon-Kimmel era in late-night TV will likely have the effect of freshening up the entire time period, and making it more exciting than it has been in years.

I’ll go out even further on this limb to predict that the Colbert “Late Show” has the potential to unseat Jimmy Fallon’s “Tonight Show” as late-night’s highest-rated show, seizing the top spot in late-night TV for CBS -- something Letterman was never able to achieve. Colbert is that good -- smart, creative, extremely talented, and supported by some of the most acclaimed writers and producers in TV comedy. And his followers from “The Colbert Report” are fanatics.

Rumor has it that Stewart will leave “The Daily Show” either this summer or next fall (if not sooner; it hasn’t been announced yet). Unfortunately, he’ll be leaving right when late-night TV seems poised for a new Golden Age.

Maybe that’s why he’s choosing to step away now, when late-night network TV -- big, loud, and one hour in length every night on the three networks that are still the biggest networks on television -- is about to become more competitive, and draw more attention and generate more heat, than it ever has before.

Jon Stewart won’t be a part of that, and neither will frequent late-night guest Brian Williams. There will be no more interviews on the “Letterman” show or “slow-jamming the news” on “The Tonight Show” for Williams, not for the next six months and most likely not after he returns either. Now that’s a prediction I’m fairly confident about.

1 comment about "Late-Night TV Will Survive And Thrive After Stewart Leaves".
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  1. Ed Kiernan from Consultant, February 12, 2015 at 9:47 p.m.

    Hi Adam
    Fallon is a juggernaut. Colbert does not get any traction
    He is replaced in 18 months...with Jon Stewart

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