• by Michael Silverstein , Op-Ed Contributor, October 16, 2015

What happens when brand love turns to hate? The National Football League may soon find out.

The NFL is the world’s richest sports brand, with legions of fans and 2015 revenues of nearly $13 billion, more than the total GDP of 50 countries. But if the league mismanages its current threats — ranging from head trauma to domestic violence to too-aggressive commercial expansion — its passionate followers will turn hostile. If they do, pro football runs the risk of becoming a marginal sport like American boxing. The risk is one that all great brands face when loyal followers turn sour.

“Deflategate” is an embarrassment for the NFL, but its real problems lie elsewhere. Great brands are built on emotional connections with people. When those connections are broken and people feel betrayed, the backlash can be enough to crush an organization. This is especially true when you alienate core consumers. The NFL has two core consumer groups, and both are at risk:

Women. Many are repelled by the league’s response to domestic violence and game violence. This matters because they account for 44% of the NFL’s fan base. A critical subgroup — mothers — is so concerned about head trauma that they are steering their children away from football and toward other sports like soccer. Youth football participation is down 27% in the last three years. When Mom says "don't play," the boys say "okay." 

Superfans, the ones who build their week around their favorite team or team's big game. Many are saying, "I love football," but don't take every day. 

Scandal, violence, catastrophic injury, over-exposure can kill this game. To recover, the NFL, needs reform.

Understand that brand love can turn to hate: Great brands aren’t stable because human relationships and interconnections aren’t stable. Anthropologists call it “schismogensis” — relationships are either growing stronger and more successful, or spiraling toward decline. Brands are fragile. The NFL risks breaking the bonds that define the brand.

Focus on core consumers. These are the consumers that matter. We call them “apostles.” They’re the few (as few as two%) who generate 20% of volume directly and generate through word of mouth advocacy 80% of your total volume. Women and superfans are the NFL’s apostles. Listen to their complaints, respond and fix the violence, ethics, and overexposure.

Get ahead of the harsh winds. Don’t wait for the backlash to overwhelm you — get out ahead of it. Toyota did an exemplary job of this during its 2008 crisis involving “sudden unintended acceleration.” Forthright communication with its customers helped make the difference, along with a comprehensive response. Toyota came through the crisis because it responded with conviction and urgency, used clear, honest language, and remembered that no one ever got angry from “I’m sorry.” So far, the NFL hasn’t shown that it’s adept at preempting its many crises or using skillful communications to get ahead and stay ahead of issues. 

Remember that Mom rules. She controls the family emotionally and behaviorally. Track her feelings, words and commandments to know where you stand. Mothers are critical to the NFL’s future. If they steer their children toward other sports out of safety concerns, then the NFL loses the talent war.

The NFL is at risk, but it can still recover. The major lesson for the NFL and more broadly for anyone selling a game or a product is:

• Get ahead of the harsh winds

• Respond with conviction and urgency

• Use clear honest language

• Sincerely say "I'm sorry" and make sure it does not happen again

• Get to the decision maker with truth, reform and a clear action plan

If the NFL is going to prosper it will need to change its stripes visibly and with power. High profile new truth will make it a brand that survives, thrives and goes on to infinite growth.