Microsoft Bing Predictions For Iowa Caucus On Par With University Poll

The Iowa caucus officially gets underway Monday evening, marking the beginning of an important phase in the 2016 presidential elections. Microsoft believes Bing can predict the outcome.

Bing Predicts forecast Donald Trump to win all four of the February GOP Republican primaries and caucuses. Hillary Clinton will take all but New Hampshire, where Bernie Sanders wins.

The predictions put Trump as the Republican primaries winner in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. Ted Cruz follows in all four states. Hillary Clinton should win three out of the first four Democratic primaries-Iowa, South Carolina, and Nevada--losing New Hampshire to Bernie Sanders.

Microsoft used data from polls, prediction markets, and anonymized and aggregated search-engine queries to predict its results. Although it is not always correct, it did correctly predict everything from "American Idol" to World Cup winners. It also had pretty good success on the 2014 mid-terms.

In Iowa, Bing Predicts models expect a close race for both parties. A win for Donald Trump means the real estate mogul is forecast to take 39.8% of the votes over Ted Cruz with 30.5% of the GOP nomination, with Marco Rubio a distant third place with 12.9% of the votes.

On the Democratic side, Bing predicts a tough battle for Hillary Clinton. The models calculate Clinton will beat Bernie Sanders by a small margin with 50.1% of the votes for Clinton vs. 46.8% for Sanders.

The data also includes Bing Political Index (BPI), which shows where each candidate stands on key issues.

A poll out early Monday from Quinnipiac University shows Donald increasing his lead over Ted Cruz, 31% to 24%, up from a two-point lead in the sale poll last week.

The poll also finds Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida in third place with 17%, followed by Dr. Ben Carson with 8%, and no other candidate above 4%.

Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, believes the size of the turnout tonight will likely become the key factor, especially on the Democratic side. "High turnouts with lots of new caucus participants likely would mean a good night for Sen. Bernie Sanders, and for Donald Trump," he wrote in a prepared statement.

For the Democratic Party, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 46%, respectively. Three percent goes to former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley. Only 2% remain undecided and 14% of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

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