Commentary

Most New Broadcast Series Will Flop - Here's Why

At the recent broadcast upfront presentations, we heard a lot about how traditional television was still far superior to digital in reach, overall viewing, and impacting sales. 

A recent edition of The Sternberg Report pointed out that adults spend about 11 times as many hours watching traditional TV as they do watching video on all other platforms combined.

But as the broadcast networks tout themselves as the best advertising vehicles out there, they continue to stubbornly refuse to take their own advice. 

They won't advertise their programming on other broadcast networks.

One of my favorite shows, TNT’s The Last Ship, just returned for a new season.  I would not have been aware of that had TNT not promoted the show on other networks.  The same is true for AMC’s new series Preacher.

Cable networks long ago came to understand that the best way to grow their audience was to appeal to those who were watching similar shows on other networks. 

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They also understood that it didn't really hurt them much if other cable networks did the same.  If everyone gained viewers, more advertising dollars would shift from broadcast to cable, and everyone would eventually benefit.

Yet the broadcast networks still stubbornly refuse to see that the reverse is also true.  They will, strangely enough, take advertising from their real competitors – ad-supported cable networks, HBO, Showtime, and even Netflix, but not from one another. 

It is not the 1980s or 1990s.  A broadcast hit on one network actually does benefit all networks.  When an “Empire” takes off, people start believing in the power of network TV again. Except for the very occasional cable phenomenon like “The Walking Dead,” no other platform is currently capable of generating the audience size of a successful broadcast network show.

The broadcast networks are all highlighting their new series’ digital and social media presence leading up to the new season.  That’s all well and good, but they just told us that traditional TV has greater impact.

Why not use it more effectively?

Looking over the new prime-time schedules, there are numerous candidates for cross-network promotion.  CBS’ new medical drama, “Pure Genius” should be promoted on “Grey’s Anatomy.”  Then ABC can promote the new political drama, “Designated Survivor” on “Madam Secretary.” 

There are many other examples across all the broadcast networks.

In what other instance does a company refuse to advertise its product to the largest and most easily measurable audience?

Let's be clear. These aren't just random consumers the broadcast networks are choosing not to pursue.  These are the best possible prospects, viewers the networks know are already watching similar programming.

They are viewers engaged with the exact type of program the networks are trying to promote to them.  I don't know how to say it more clearly.

There is absolutely no question in my mind that if the networks started cross-promoting one another's shows, new series success rates would rise dramatically, and overall broadcast ratings would stabilize, or decline less. 

In my last article for Television Daily News, I opined that networks only care about how they rank, not whether they actually grow their audience – short-term thinking that could lead to long-term disaster.  If they continue to not advertise to their biggest chunk of available viewers, it proves the point.

7 comments about "Most New Broadcast Series Will Flop - Here's Why".
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  1. Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, June 8, 2016 at 1:24 p.m.

    Steve, do you believe that ABC would accept ads for CBS's primetime content and visa versa---even on a trade not a pay basis? I tend to doubt it.

  2. Steve Sternberg from The Sternberg Report replied, June 8, 2016 at 1:50 p.m.

    Ed, that's my whole point. They should.

  3. Marla Goldstein from Around The Bend Media, June 8, 2016 at 10:53 p.m.

    Wait. So when you go to test drive a Ford, they should hand you brochures for Chevrolet or maybe Toyota in the showroom because all 3 car manufacturers share a similar demographic?

    This concept makes absolutely zero sense, has no practical application and is ridiculous on its face.

    Sorry to be so harsh, but I know whereof I speak.

    The networks have plenty of tools available to them to track down likely viewers, both on their own air and off-air.

    This whole idea is laughable.

  4. Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, June 9, 2016 at 7:25 a.m.

    I can remember a time about 15 years ago when cable channels routinely traded promo announcements with other cable channels inviting their viewers to watch the advertised channel. This was based on the absurd theory that cable channels didn't compete with eachother for audiences. Indeed, when CNN was top dog in the cable news ratings it exchanged such promos with then hindrunner Fox News Channel.  Even when the latter's ratings took off and CNN's tanked this idiocy persisted. Eventually CNN realized that it was cutting its own throat and cancelled the deal----but by then Fox was well in the lead and has never looked back.

  5. Steve Sternberg from The Sternberg Report, June 9, 2016 at 7:47 a.m.

    Sorry to be equally harsh, but your example is ridiculous. If you really don't think the main reason for cable original series success has not been cross channel advertising, you have not been paying attention. 

  6. Steve Sternberg from The Sternberg Report, June 9, 2016 at 8:10 a.m.

    Ed, I don't think news is a good analogy.  It might be the one instance where people watch networks rather than programs. Better analogy is NCAA Basketball tournament or NFL Football. 

  7. Steve Sternberg from The Sternberg Report replied, June 11, 2016 at 4:48 p.m.

    Mara - I think if Ford gave Chvy brochures to everyone and Chevy gave Ford brochures to everyone, it wouldn't hurt sales for either, but would likely improve sales for both.

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