According to eMarketer’s latest forecast on mobile messaging apps, 2016 will be a banner year for Snapchat. It will grow its user base by double digits, pulling ahead of Twitter and Pinterest in the US for the first time, and widening through 2020.
US Snapchat Users (Millions, 2014-2020) | |||
Year | Snapchat Users | % Change | % of Social Network Users |
2014 | 32.8 MM | 83.9% | 18.9% |
2015 | 46.1 | 40.7 | 25.6 |
2016 | 58.6 | 27.2 | 31.6 |
2017 | 66.6 | 13.6 | 34.9 |
2018 | 73.2 | 9.9 | 37.5 |
2019 | 79.7 | 8.8 | 40.0 |
2020 | 85.5 | 7.3 | 42.2 |
Source: eMarketer, June 2016 (Mobile phone users, any age, access Snapchat via mobile phone at least once/month/year) |
This year, Snapchat’s US user base will jump by 27.2% to 58.6 million users, says the report. Snapchat’s growth rate far exceeds that of mobile messaging in general, as the category as a whole will grow by 16% in the US this year. Meanwhile, Twitter will have 56.8 million users in the US this year and Pinterest will have 54.6 million users. By 2020, Snapchat will add 26.9 million users, about double that of Twitter and Pinterest.
eMarketer principal analyst Cathy Boyle says “…what makes Snapchat different from other mobile messaging apps and more-established social networks… is short-lived nature of the messages… highly visual interface… features that enable users to get creative with the images (and)… tailor them to specific locations or events… Snapchat has cut through the clutter… injecting fun back into social sharing… ”
Snapchat has been especially successful at capturing younger users, particularly those 12 to 34, says the report. Snapchat’s biggest user base is between 18 and 24, representing 34.0% of Snapchat’s user base this year. That’s followed by Americans between 25 and 34, representing 27.0% of Snapchat’s US user base. The fastest growing US age group for Snapchat is people under 12, which will grow 42.9% this year.
US Snapchat Users, by Age | ||||
| Users/Year (MM) | |||
Age | 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 |
0-11 | 0.2MM | 0.7MM | 1.1MM | 1.3MM |
12-17 | 8.7 | 13.6 | 16.5 | 18.1 |
18-24 | 12.0 | 20.0 | 23.2 | 25.4 |
25-34 | 7.6 | 15.8 | 20.5 | 25.3 |
35-44 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 7.9 |
45-54 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 4.0 |
55-64 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
65+ | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
Source: eMarketer, June 2016 |
Boyle continues, saying “… Snapchat has tapped into a key change in consumer behavior… the desire for intimate one-to-one or one-to-few communication as opposed to broadcast-style sharing... particularly strong among millennials and younger consumers… (without) strong ties to the traditional social networks…”
Even with its explosive growth, Snapchat will not be able to catch up to Facebook Messenger, which will continue to dominate the chat app category in the US, says the report. Messenger will capture 105.2 million users in the US this year, about twice that of Snapchat. Nearly two-thirds of the US population will use Facebook Messenger at least once a month in 2016.
US Mobile Phone Messaging App Users (MM Users, % of Population) | ||||
| Year | |||
Application | 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 |
Facebook Messenger | ||||
MM Users | 64.9MM | 105.2 | 126.2 | 139.2 |
% of Population | 20.3% | 32.5 | 38.3 | 41.6 |
Snapchat | ||||
MM Users | 32.8MM | 58.6 | 73.2 | 85.5 |
% of Population | 10.3% | 18.1 | 22.2 | 25.6 |
MM Users | 12.8MM | 18.4 | 21.5 | 23.5 |
% of Population | 4.0% | 5.7 | 5.5 | 7.0 |
Source: eMarketer, June 2016 (Mobile phone users accessing application via mobile phone at least once/month; groups not mutually exclusive) |
Over the next four years, the gap between Facebook Messenger and its rivals will widen. This year, Messenger will have 46.6 million more users than Snapchat. But by 2018, it will have 53.7 million more users.
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