• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, April 13, 2017

Potential new writer’s strike could have some consequences for the TV advertising industry -- but far different than the one that occurred 10 years ago.

The last time around -- in 2007-- there wasn’t big TV-video alternatives, such as Netflix, Amazon, and other digital video platforms. That strike lasted a little over three months -- 14 weeks.

In that strike, the thinking was that in the absence of fresh scripted programming, TV viewers would turn to more live TV programming -- sports and news. Or reality TV/unscripted programming. Did that occur? Not so much.

From November 2007 to February 2007, broadcast prime-time ratings fell nearly 7%.

But this time around, much more mature businesses -- like Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, YouTube, and other digital platforms -- could benefit, writes Barclays media analyst Kannan Venkateshwar.

Additionally, another belief is that it could benefit existing scripted TV episodes/series — as long as the strike doesn’t last too long — in this regard: Catch-up of viewing of highly-touted TV series not on viewers radar in recent years.

At TV Watch, we’ve talked lots of about the glut of scripted TV shows -- some 425 currently, according to research compiled by the folks at FX Networks. These are shows that haven’t gotten viewer sampling, able to rise over all the promotional TV series noise.

Now, they might get their chance.

In this regard, imagine consumers searching for new stuff -- yes, on SVOD and advertising-supported VOD platforms, combing through  the fourth season of “24” that they didn’t get to, or the third season of “Breaking Bad.”  Serial TV dramas in particular might benefit.

Still, overall any strike won’t be good for TV networks. When it comes to advertising, big-time consumer marketing companies wait for no one -- especially if they see even more TV viewer erosion. Ad money might move back to digital video platforms -- especially premium digital video platforms.

This would be a turn of events for traditional TV.

Going into the upfront last year, TV-video marketers had issues concerning digital video platforms -- fraud, waste, completion rates of ads, and other issues.  Some believe advertising dollars returned to TV networks as a result. This resulted a small, but important rise in volume -- as well as near double digit cost per thousand viewer pricing increases for programming.

Writers Guild of America warned advertisers and investors its members will most likely walk out May 2 if the new round of talks fail -- just weeks before active TV upfront selling is set to commence.

All of which means, you might write this: Some unscripted TV drama to come.