U.S. TV stations’ total advertising revenues are estimated to record a 6.5% decline to $21.38 billion in 2017.
According to SNL Kagan, a unit of S&P Global Market Intelligence, this is somewhat expected, due to unfavorable comparisons to the year before, which saw higher political and Olympic TV advertising.
Results are expected to show recovery next year -- rising 9.6% to $23.4 billion. Midterm political advertising and Olympic advertising sales are expected to contribute to the spike.
Through 2022, Kagan projects that TV stations will grow advertising revenues 3% on a compounded annual rate to $24.8 billion -- which includes linear TV advertising, both national and local, as well as digital TV advertising revenue.
Over the next five years, Kagan says, declines are expected to continue during off-Olympics and off-political years -- with a 5.3% decline in 2019 and a 6.3% pullback in 2021.
Going forward, TV stations’ linear TV advertising share is expected to continue to shrink as part of their total revenues. National and local spot ad revenues -- including political advertising -- will fall to a 59% share in 2022. It had been 94% of total TV station revenue in 2007, and 62% in 2017.
At the same time, revenues from retransmission fees paid to TV stations from pay TV providers are expected to rise. Retrans revenues are predicted to rise from just over a 1% share of industry revenue in 2007 to 30% in 2017 and 33% by 2022.
By the end of 2022, total TV station industry revenue is expected to reach $37.19 billion -- $19.08 billion in national and local core spot; $2.72 billion in political advertising; $2.99 billion in digital/online; and $12.40 billion in retransmission fees.