• by Wayne Friedman , March 28, 2018

U.S. TV advertising revenues will continue to decline this year and next -- rising in 2020, due to another presidential election and Summer Olympics.

In 2018, the total U.S. TV ad market will slip 0.5% to $69.87 billion, according to eMarketer -- after a 1.5% drop in 2017. The market will sink 1% in 2019, to $69.17 billion, and then rise slightly 0.5% to $69.52 billion in 2020.

These estimates exclude any digital advertising on any TV platform. Total U.S. TV ad-spend share will drop from 33.9% in 2017 to 31.6% this year.

At the same time, eMarketer says total digital media U.S. advertising spending will rise 18.7% to $107.3 billion. Part of this will include digital media owned by TV platforms.

For example, Hulu (owned by Walt Disney, NBCUniversal and 21st Century Fox, each with 30% and Time Warner, at 10%) will see gains of 13% to $1.12 billion. 

However, eMarketer says advertising will represent a smaller portion of total revenue, due to growing subscription revenues.

The researcher says the number of U.S. TV viewers -- those who watch live or recorded TV programs at least once a month -- will slip 0.2% to 297.7 million in 2018.

The number of OTT viewers is growing 2.7% to 198.6 million.