• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, August 27, 2019

Big advertising expectations are coming for 2020 — a presidential campaign and the Tokyo Summer Olympics.

At the same time, we hear talk that a probable U.S. economic recession is coming. Is media and TV innovation still something to count on?

Next year, we will be in the throes of massive changes in the TV industry, with streaming entertainment services coming from Walt Disney, WarnerMedia, NBCUniversal and Apple.

All this is brewing as the stock market continues wild gyrations. There was a recent, eye-opening 800-point drop a week ago to another 623-point drop this past Friday. All this as we continue to worry about data concerns — privacy issues — and constant advertising fraud problems.

Is this just the new normal? Perhaps the word “disruption” no longer applies to the TV industry, when there is more disruption all around us.

For many, the economy still looks strong, with U.S. companies continuing to play it safe and hoarding lots of cash. At the same time, consumer retail businesses continue to see strong gains, given major retailing company disclosures.

All that seems to feed a positive narrative. Those new U.S. streaming TV-based services — subscription, ad-supported or otherwise — will see a welcoming market for steady business growth.

But perhaps we are wrong.

GroupM is forecasting a steady and strong 4.7% worldwide growth in advertising for 2020 — which excludes political advertising in the U.S. Adding this in, however, GroupM says global ad growth is estimated at 6% — a nice rise.

Next year, U.S. political advertising is set to hit more new records — anywhere from $7 billion to $10 billion in 2020, depending on your favorite estimate.

Who will be on the short end?

Perhaps those stuck-in-the-mud media businesses too concerned about higher capital spending on new digital/technology platforms. They won’t be able to gain traction — either in a pre- or post recessionary period.

Media companies have no choice but to transform — even amid approaching possible economic declines. Next year will prove to be a big test.