• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, September 15, 2005

Radio ratings giant Arbitron won't even release its first bit of data from its Houston market trial of its fledgling portable people meter ratings system until next week, but it's already declaring success. "It's mission accomplished," Pierre Bouvard, president of Arbitron's PPM project told MDN in one of a series of pre-launch spin sessions to prepare reporters for next week's data release. The new PPM data ironically will be released in Philadelphia, the first PPM test market, where the National Association of Broadcasters happens to be holding its annual Radio Show.

But according to Bouvard, the data itself may not be as significant - at least not initially - as the research milestones Arbitron has reached leading up to it.

In fact, the Houston market trial is one of the last elements Arbitron needed to deliver to the radio industry to convince it to move forward with the promising new audience research method, which may ultimately be used to measure far more than radio. Because it can measure any medium emitting an audio signal that a panelist is exposed to, the PPMs can also measure TV, outdoor, and potentially other media. During the Houston test, Arbitron will release multimedia ratings for radio, TV and outdoor locations.

Another important element of the PPM data is that it will measure media usage in out-of-home locations. This is especially significant for TV stations in the market, because TV ratings supplier Nielsen Media Research does not currently measure out-of-home viewing of TV.

Nielsen, of course, has an option to launch a joint venture with Arbitron to roll out a PPM service that would measure both radio and TV, but so far has kept its plans close to the vest. Nielsen has said it plans to make a decision on that by the end of the year, but there already appears to be friction between the two research companies over how the PPMs might be used: Arbitron would like to roll them out in all of the top media markets; Nielsen has already committed to using its conventional people meters in the top 10 media markets.

Because of that, and other mixed signals expressed by Nielsen during the market trials and R&D associated with the PPM, Arbitron has developed what it calls a "Radio First" PPM rollout plan. To convince the radio industry to move forward with that plan, which would dramatically increase audience research costs for radio broadcasters, it had to achieve several important milestones, including four key objectives leading up to the Houston launch.

"We are hear to declare victory," said Bouvard, ticking off four key objectives that have been met:
1 - High sample performance goals based on an industry standard index.
2 - Good in-tab representation of that sample, meaning that all types of people in the panel are producing usable data.
3 - Strong ethnic compliance, particularly for African Americans and Spanish- and English-speaking Hispanics that have been vexing other ratings panels.
4 - That the data being produced in Houston follows similar ratings patterns as those generated in other PPM markets, including Arbitron's original field tests in Philadelphia and the U.K, as well as commercial services now operating in Canada and Belgium.

"Our objectives for Houston were, "Can you do it? Can you get people to comply?," said Bouvard. He asserts that Arbitron has proven they are complying, which mainly means they've agreed to be in the sample, and that they are effectively carrying the beeper-size PPM devices with them during the day and docking them in a data download device at night.

The Houston test will cap off a multi-year R&D effort that has included a variety of market studies, as well as an in depth economic assessment study conducted by Forrester Research for the radio industry.

The next big steps include Media Rating Council accreditation, which Arbitron is hopeful it will receive by the end of this year, and one last, secondary test in Houston, which will be based on splitting its current sample in two to confirm their initial findings.

Bouvard sought to downplay the sensational aspect of findings that may come from the actual release of the data next week, such as the dramatic swings it is likely to show between Arbitron's current diary methods for radio, and Nielsen's metered methods for TV in the market, especially the out-of-home usage aspect. Instead, he wants all of Arbitron's key stakeholders to look at the data with a "high degree of confidence" that it is based on solid methods laid out by the industry and delivered by Arbitron.