Dueling Forecasts Reveal Programmatic Dominating Digital Ad Marketplace

Two out of every three digital display ad dollars are now bought programmatically, according to the latest update from the media market forecasting team at Publicis Media’s Zenith. The agency’s just-released 2019 Programmatic Marketing Forecasts projects that 69.2% of the $322.6 million global display ad marketplace will be bought programmatically in 2020.

Zenith projects programmatic’s share will rise to 72% of all display ad dollars next year.

In the U.S., the share of programmatic has grown even faster, and will reach 85.8% in 2021, according to Zenith.

eMarketer coincidentally released and update of its ongoing tracking of programmatic media-buying in the U.S. this morning, with slightly more aggressive share projections. eMarketer estimates 86.5% of display ad spending will be bought programmatically by 2021.

Zenith’s analysis of the relative costs and clickthrough performance in the U.S. helps explain why programmatic has accelerated so much.

Average CPMs have been relatively stable, while clickthrough rates have been improving for both display and social media, though they have eroded slightly for mobile and overall digital advertising.

“The U.S. has adopted advanced programmatic technology across multiple channels. The entire programmatic technology stack is widely used, and mature partners are looking to expand beyond display by providing access to digital out-of-home, connected TV and audio media,” Zenith Head of Forecasting Jonathan Barnard writes in the report, adding, “Programmatic spend has increased steadily over time as advertisers, agencies, platforms and publishers have tested new technologies and techniques, learned from and optimized them. Ad tech platforms are working to become more relevant, data-informed, performance-focused, and connected. This in turn encourages vendors to meet the demands of sophisticated marketers with advanced requirements.”

Zenith Programmatic Costs & Clickthrough Rates, U.S.:

2 comments about "Dueling Forecasts Reveal Programmatic Dominating Digital Ad Marketplace".
Check to receive email when comments are posted.
  1. Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, November 25, 2019 at 10:17 a.m.

    Joe, I wonder what the explanation for some of these CPM variations is?For, example, in 2016 the average CPM for  digital video was$10.76.  In 2017 it suddenly jumped to $21.64 but tumbled down to $12.33 in 2018. I also wonder what percent of video ad dollars are handled by programmatic buys? I assume that it's a lot less than the display feiures cited.

  2. Matt Collins from Simulmedia, November 26, 2019 at 9:20 a.m.

    2017's CPCs also look off, with the overall CPC jumping to $6.43 from $0.93 in 2016, before falling to $1.60 in 2018.

    These averages also conceal what is undoubtedly quite a bit of variance. For example, a company that sells a high cost item, e.g. Peloton, would expect higher CPx than a company selling something that costs much less, e.g. Quip toothbrushes.

Next story loading loading..