Thanks in large part to the boost from shelter-at-home, global online TV episode and movie revenues — including consumer fees and advertising — are now projected to increase by 101%, from $83 billion to $167 billion, between 2019 and 2025, projects Digital TV Research.
Within that total, subscription-driven SVOD revenue is projected to grow 103%, from $48.2 billion to $97.5 billion, and its share of total revenue will remain at about 58%.
Advertising supported VOD (AVOD) will grow by 120%, from $24.3 billion to $53.5 billion, and represent about 32% of total revenue.
Download-to-own/electronic sell-through revenue is estimated to grow 62%, from $6.2 billion to $10 billion; and rentals are projected to grow 35%, from $4.7 billion to $6.3 billion.
Total U.S. OTT revenue is also expected to nearly double — rising from $35 billion last year to $68 billion by 2025.
During 2020, total global revenue is projected to grow by about $16 billion.
“Taking account of the corona virus impact, we have overhauled our forecasts for 138 countries,” said Simon Murray, the principal analyst for Digital TV Research. “SVOD has boomed during the lockdown, and thanks to the rollout of Disney+. However, advertising confidence has been hit. We expect lower growth for AVOD in 2020 – but recovery thereafter.”
The top five countries will command two-thirds of global OTT revenue by 2025, down from 72% in 2019, as OTT growth in the rest of the world grows at a faster rate. OTT revenues will exceed $1 billion in 19 countries by 2025, whereas OTT was tracked in 13 countries in 2019.
China — which has been hard-hit by the global economic slowdown and is expected to see AVOD fall in 2020 and 2021 — will add $6 billion over the period, to reach to $19 billion.
The projections are part of the research firm's new Global OTT TV and Video Forecasts report.