• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, June 9, 2020

If more theatrical movies shift to premium streamers from in-theater showing, it could change (or stunt) almost everything -- profitability, marketing and consumer usage.

Take advertising, as one example. Traditional theatrical marketers' box-office data is widely reported in the consumer press after an opening weekend. It -- along with lots of TV advertising -- has been a key business tool in more ways than one.

For producers, historical opening weekend data can more easily determine when and where a new edition of “Avengers," "Toy Story" and “Star Wars” should be released in the future.

Also consider those box-office news reports on Monday morning for consumers. It may seem like business/financial news, but in acts as a promotional tool for pulling people into theaters. Not all consumers understand business specifics, but they understand big dollars.

But for movies on streamers -- Netflix, Hulu, Amazon, and newer and forthcoming streamers, like Disney+, Apple TV+, HBO Max and Peacock -- this could change. Those services don’t break out this kind of information week to week -- and it doesn't appear they ever will.

In part, that is because those streamers double as both distributors of content and TV/movie producers. These companies have different long-term goals than theaters. Streamers have primarily closed systems when it comes to consumer data.

In contrast, for a TV show, Netflix can determine what specific viewing/activity has occurred, whether a TV series has maintained its viewing usage and whether it should continue making episodes.

Now, for decades, TV networks have done the same thing in using Nielsen ratings. But those numbers are estimates, and everyone uses third-party metrics.

To be fair, Netflix, from time to time, has dribbled out some data on TV shows and movies. But there is little consistency. Even then, Netflix measurement only counts viewers who have seen any entertainment content for “two seconds and longer.”

Here comes the future.

For new legacy-based movie/TV companies with streamers -- such as Disney+ (Walt Disney), HBO Max (AT&T), Peacock (NBC Universal), an CBS All Access (ViacomCBS) -- marketing new movies/TV shows will change. In short, the way media giants have used Nielsen data as the basis of promotions -- including its TV and box-office movie data -- will change.

What will this look like? It probably won't be strictly about TV ratings or demographics. Other data points will be considered. Maybe even dollars and cents. If we are real lucky -- it will be just like in-theater movies.