TV's Slow Recovery: Projected To Drop 10% For 2020

TV advertising will slowly recover in the third and fourth quarter of this year -- but will still post a 10% decline in 2020 versus 2019.

MoffettNathanson Research says the sharp 28% decline in TV advertising in the second quarter due to the COVID-19 pandemic will be slowed by 9% drops in each of the third and fourth quarters of this year.

In the first quarter, TV advertising was down 2%.

This will result in an overall 10% decline to $69.5 billion.

National TV cable networks -- TV’s biggest ad segment -- are forecast to sink 16% to $25.5 billion, with broadcast networks down 13% to $12.9 billion. National TV syndication is projected to fall 15% to $2.6 billion.

TV stations' advertising will be the best performer -- due to major growth in political advertising, including the Presidential election -- and will recede 5% to $19.6 billion. Political advertising will also boost local cable, which will drop 9% to $4.4 billion.



One positive area of growth is advertising video-on-demand streaming TV platforms --- including Roku, Hulu, Pluto TV, Tubi TV, and Peacock. This category will be up 38% to $4.4 billion.

Overall digital and online media -- the dominant U.S. advertising medium --  will see a 4% increase for the year to $109.1 billion, after flat results in the second quarter due to COVID-19.

Driven largely by digital media advertising, overall U.S. advertising will fall 5% to $216.3 billion.

Traditional media (TV, print, newspapers, magazines, radio, and outdoor) will decline 13% to $107.2 billion.

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