• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, September 1, 2020

Can we draw any conclusions from TV ratings of the Democratic National Convention or the Republican National Convention?

Not much. The DNC Nielsen-measured ratings average of its four-night virtual TV effort was 21.6 million. The RNC's was 19.4 million.

So Biden has the edge, slightly better ratings than Trump, our first TV personality President -- all of which probably isn’t going over well in the White House.

What accounts for the somewhat low Trump RNC ratings? Some of this weak RNC TV engagement -- or lack of it -- came on the last night, featuring the President’s lackluster 70-minute acceptance speech.

Many described it as low-energy. Critics note the President doesn’t deliver well when reading from the teleprompter -- better results come from improvisational speaking at rallies, where facts, figures and often dubious assertions can bounce all over the place. But with attitude!

Against the close TV results, overall, national polls still give former Vice President Joe Biden a clear lead -- averaging 50.4% versus 42.4%, according to a recent consensus of U.S. polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight.com.

Other numbers: In terms of TV advertising spending to come -- an obvious major factor over the years -- we see Biden plans to spend around $280 million. Trump plans to spend around $147 million.

This doesn’t include related PAC money (political action committees). But don’t focus too much on this. With two months to go before the election, these numbers can change big time.

In addition to paid advertising -- with no real live rallies expected for either candidate -- focus should be on “earned media” --- press conferences, interviews, airings of political TV advertising content to be discussed on TV news shows. And, in theory, the Presidential debates.

Trump, as we have seen, can do much with this -- especially when it comes to “awareness” data.

And, of course, there’s the wild card: Possible more bad actors finding a way to weave and change opinion via any open media (social media and otherwise) access points. National Counterintelligence and Security Center, among other governmental organizations, recently said Russia is actively interfering in the 2020 election.

Near-term results from this will be evident in any trends in changing polls -- especially with 12 to 15 battleground states.

Historically, the ultimate ROI “business outcome” would come on the first Tuesday in November. But this is not an ordinary election year. It might not necessarily be the end of the story. While we wait, we’ll look forward to more clear and cloudy TV data.