Analyst Forecasts 104M More U.S. SVOD Subs By 2027, But Just 2M For Netflix

Assessments that the U.S. subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) market as a whole has reached saturation are off the mark, in the view of Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research.

“Although we expect some deceleration for more established players, there is still plenty of growth to be had for the younger platforms such as Disney+, Paramount+ and HBO Max,” he argues.

The researcher’s new report on OTT TV and video in North America predicts that Netflix will add a mere 2 million U.S. subscribers between 2021 and 2027 — but that newer platforms will continue to expand.

Specifically, it forecasts 31 million U.S. sub additions during that timeframe for HBO Max, 26 million for Paramount+, and 12 million for Disney.

For the market as a whole, the report forecasts that gross U.S. SVOD subscriptions for movies, linear channels and TV episodes (excluding other platforms such as sports) will rise from 354 million at year-end 2021 to 458 million by year-end 2027.

In addition, the researcher projects that about 86% of TV households will subscribe to at least one SVOD platform by 2027, and that the average SVOD household will pay for 4.37 such services by 2027.

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