• by Todd Wasserman , September 12, 2022

The fall season is typically when Hollywood rolls out its potential blockbusters and Oscar bait. With COVID recently receding in the U.S. and 79.2%  of the U.S. population having received at least one dose of the vaccine (per Becker’s Hospital Review), a majority of the population should feel comfortable returning to theaters.

Hollywood will test such resolve with a lineup of movies this fall that includes “Don’t Worry Darling,” “Blonde,” “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” and “Amsterdam,” among many others.

But as we embark on the fall season, a few questions remain unanswered, including:

Will ticket sales continue to fall? “Top Gun: Maverick” (released May 27) and “Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness” (May 6), are credited with reviving the movie theater business, driving millions of ticket sales. But ticket sales fell in late July and August, despite such releases as “Jurassic World: Dominion” and “Minions: The Rise of Gru.”

Will September releases get audiences back? September releases include “Blonde,” a fictionalized biopic of Marilyn Monroe; “Confess, Fletch,” with Jon Hamm taking over for Chevy Chase; and a rerelease of 2009’s “Avatar.” The would-be blockbuster releases for the fall include "Black Adam" in October, "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" in November and "Avatar: The Way of Water" in December.

When will things get back to normal? It all depends on the course of COVID this fall and the movie lineup for 2023. The box office is on pace to deliver $7.5 billion in ticket sales by the end of the year, according to Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. That compares to $11.4 billion for the U.S. box office in 2019, per Deadline. Many analysts predict 2023 is when the domestic box office will bounce back, according to ScreenRant.