• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, October 10, 2022

Tighter family budgets mean fewer people will shop online this holiday. And Adobe is forecasting online sales of $209.7 billion this season, a gain of 2.5% compared to last year.

Adobe expects discounting to be "massive," with a record 32% of transactions, as retailers struggle with too much inventory and cautious consumers.

On Cyber Monday­ -- the Monday after Thanksgiving -- sales are forecast to reach a record $11.2 billion, up 5.1% compared to last year.

But Adobe expects Black Friday sales to add just 1%, to $9 billion, with online sales on Thanksgiving falling 1% to $5.1 billion.

"The shape of the holiday season will look different this year, with early discounting in October pulling up spend that would have occurred around Cyber Week," said Patrick Brown, vice president of growth marketing and insights at Adobe, in the announcement. "Even though we expect to see single-digit growth online this season, it is notable that consumers have already spent over $590 billion online this year at 8.9% growth, highlighting the resiliency of ecommerce demand." 

Adobe is also projecting significant shifts in how people buy online, including a record $13.3 billion in groceries. It expects electronics to drive $49.8 billion in online spending, a 2.9% gain. And it predicts apparel sales will fall 6.7% as consumers shift to more in-store purchases.

Together, grocery, electronics and clothing are expected to make up $103.8 billion of online spending.

Adobe also anticipates early surges as consumers scurry to pounce on deals offered by Amazon Prime's special Prime Day promotion this month.

It's the first time Amazon has held two Prime Day events in one year. Its first in 2022 had a colossal impact, propelling a 20.9% year-over-year gain in July's online sales.

Adobe predicts Amazon's deals will also draw plenty of bargain hunters this time around. Other retailers, including Target and Kohl's, are also kicking off their holiday sales early.

While rising prices continue to wreak havoc on consumers' budgets, consumer confidence has been improving for the second straight month in September, reports the Conference Board. Inflation concerns are dissipating, primarily as gasoline prices ease. And intentions to buy big-ticket items, such as cars and appliances, are also up.

Adobe, based in San Jose, California, bases its estimates by tracking 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, including 100 million SKUs in 18 product categories.