National TV Ads Forecast To Decline 6.4% In 2023, AVOD/OTT To Rise 32%

U.S. national TV networks’ advertising revenues are now forecast to fall further next year -- down 6.4%, according to IPG Mediabrands’ Magna Global. The media investment/research group previously estimated a 5.8% decline.

For this year, the group projects a 4% decline to $38.7 billion.

The positive for owners of national TV networks is that advertising video-on-demand (AVOD), over-the-top (OTT) and streaming platforms are forecast to continue to climb -- 31.6% higher in 2023 -- and estimated to grow 18.4% this year to $6.8 billion.

Local TV stations will see a major decline next year of 22.9% -- which was expected in a non-political advertising year. This will wipe out most major gains this year -- up an estimated 22.7% to $24 billion, due to a record-breaking political advertising year.

Magna says all long-form video -- national TV, AVOD/OTT, and local TV -- will rise 5.9% this year to $69.6 billion, but is expected to decline next year by 8.3%.

TV will continue to be impacted by the long-term erosion of reach and live viewing with new digital platforms and non-traditional platforms that are unable to fully offset these declines, according to authors of the report.

Globally, Magna estimates all TV ad revenue will be down 3.6% next year. For this year, worldwide TV is expected to grow 1.7% to $172 billion.

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