• by Todd Wasserman , Staff Writer, January 9, 2023

In late October 2021, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced that the company was changing its name to Meta and would create a “new area” for users where they could “connect, find communities and grow businesses.”

Over a year since then, there has been little progress in this vision.  Though Zuckerberg didn’t share a timeline for such progress, it’s worth taking a look at how the metaverse has progressed so far and whether marketers need to be there.

Pro: COVID and technology improvements make it a viable alternative to in-person meetings.

The COVID-induced lockdown was a boon to videoconferencing. Insight Partners estimates that the real-time communication market was worth $8.84 billion in 2021 and will grow to $39.78 billion by 2028. It’s unclear right now, though, whether such communication will evolve into the kind of metaverse environment that Zuckerberg outlined in 2021.

Con: The metaverse isn’t cool.

Meta promoted the metaverse with a Super Bowl ad in 2022 with the tagline, “No one’s ever gotten the band back together like this. Quest is ready.” But Meta’s vision of the metaverse as a meeting place hasn’t yet panned out. As CNN’s Allison Morrow wrote,  “It just doesn’t look cool. And Zuck doesn’t seem cool. And Facebook hasn’t been cool since 2009. And that’s a really big problem.”

Pro: McKinsey predicts that by 2030, the metaverse could generate $4 trillion to $5 trillion across consumer and enterprise use cases.

The key word in that statement is “could.” The report said the metaverse needed four technology enablers: devices; interoperability and open standards; and facilitating platforms and development tools. On top of all that, the metaverse needs to “deliver positive experiences for consumers, end-users and citizens.” So far, such positive experiences haven’t emerged.

Con: Last year, sales of VR headsets fell 2% percent in the U.S. and 12% globally, per the NPD group. 

And while the economy is heading into a recession, there are rumors that Apple plans to release a VR headset this year, which could invigorate the market. Still, Eric Abruzzese, a research director at ABI Research, told CNBC that Apple “won’t even ship 5 million units in its first year.”  That estimate could change if someone releases a killer app or experience in the metaverse.

Prediction: Unless someone releases a killer app in the metaverse, progress will be slow in 2023, though there may be continued progress in the business realm, in which virtual meetings may continue to gain ground.

And so far, there’s no evidence that the metaverse is taking off as a recreational meeting place.