• by Todd Wasserman , May 1, 2023

Do you want fries with that?

Increasingly, the answer to that question is no, McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski told investors last week.

"We are seeing a slight decrease in units per transaction," Kempczinski told investors.  "Certainly the customer is being mindful about how they're spending their dollar or their euro."

Some economists have seen a cutback in French fry orders as a harbinger of a recession for some time.

For instance, during the second quarter of 2011, the NPD Group found that fries were ordered for 13.2% of meals, down from 14.5% in 2004.

That observation came after the Great Recession of late 2007 to June 2009. In the second-quarter of 2011, the economy was in an “economic malaise” and the economy didn’t appear strong again until 2015.

In 2023, the U.S. economy is not in a recession, but some are looking to the cutback in French fries as a clue to where the economy is going. Chili’s, for instance, recently axed its bucket of fries for patrons, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The French fry cutbacks come as JPMorgan sees the likelihood of a mild recession in the second half of the year.

A decrease in French-fry orders as a result of a sour economy makes sense. Consumers are looking to cut as much as they can, so skipping the fries with their burger may be a harbinger of rougher economic times looming.