Global CTV Ad Forecast: Up 26% In 2024, Trade Desk At 59% Programmatic Share

Global connected TV advertising will not only continue to outpace social and search in the next few years -- up 26% to $27.5 billion this year -- but programmatic-platform revenue will soon rise above direct advertising sales, according to Guggenheim Securities.

The investment research firm says that in two years, programmatic-platform buying will hit $15.7 billion, with direct sales at $14.8 billion. 

Overall CTV advertising revenue worldwide will grow to $40.3 billion that year.

In terms of programmatic-platform advertising, it projects that demand-side advertising platform The Trade Desk will take an even higher commanding share of programmatic business -- rising from 59% this year to 63% (2025) and 66% in (2026).

Total gross digital video ad spending (inclusive of CTV) for Trade Desk was $9.6 billion in 2023.



Total CTV (through partnerships and other business) accounts for $3.5 billion, according to Guggenheim.

Looking at specific Trade Desk partnerships with streamers, the DSP gets nearly 32% of its CTV ad-revenue business from Walt Disney streaming platforms (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+); 12% from Peacock; 10%. Paramount+; and Roku, 5%.

Overall, Guggenheim expects the Trade Desk to pull in an estimated $849 million in ad revenue from its supply side partners -- growing to $1.9 billion in 2027.

“We believe relatively newer players (Netflix, Roku, for example) will be primary drivers of programmatic share gains over time,” writes Michael Morris, media analyst for Guggenheim Securities. “Our bottoms-up analysis of The Trade Desk's estimated programmatic CTV revenue suggests that Disney is and will remain the company's largest partner.” 

Guggenheim projects the Trade Desk's Disney programmatic business to be roughly $730 million in gross ad revenue by 2027.

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