Fox Corp. ad revenue was flat in the second quarter versus the same period a year ago -- landing at $1.0 billion, largely due to rising political advertising.

The company's even results are an improvement on its previous quarterly ad performances -- down 35% the first quarter of this year and 23% lower in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Looking at core advertising only -- without political advertising -- Brian Wieser of Madison & Wall, a Substack publication, estimates Fox ad revenues slipped 2% from the year-ago period.

Fox continues to benefit from strong results for Tubi -- Fox’s FAST channel (Free Ad-Supported Streaming Television) -- posting 17% higher ad revenue to $225 million.  

Overall, Tubi now represents a quarter of the company’s total advertising revenue base, says Wieser -- approximately $250 million. He adds that Tubi now represents more than a third of all Fox’s national TV ad revenues, which includes cable and broadcast networks.

But, longer term, analysts are concerned about Tubi’s advertising performance.

“Tubi’s growth is decelerating,” writes Laurent Yoon, media analyst of Bernstein Research, “and it is impacted by the surplus in [overall industry wide] CTV ad inventory.” Tubi's second quarter came in at $225 million, with the first quarter at $250 million; 

Yoon says this slowdown in growth is occurring despite Tubi's growth in monthly average users [MAUs] by 19%, and its increase of 47% in U.S. viewing.

“Tubi’s revenue only went up 7% year-over-year implying lower eCPM [effective cost per thousand viewer pricing] versus 'stable' CPM," said Yoon, adding that there is some upside “as supply-demand imbalance improves over time, improving fill rates.”

Looking at its linear TV networks, Fox News Channel has seen a 47% rise in prime-time viewership growth in the second quarter this year -- due to typical strong interest in the Presidential election season. Fox Sports 1 network is growing viewership by 25%. 

“This increase in viewership bodes well for its advertising revenue [for the rest of 2024],” he says. “The company referenced the $230 million political ad revenue in its fiscal year 2021 comparison and expects fiscal year 2025 to be a record cycle.”