Commentary

Linear-To-Streaming Ad Struggles: Long Road Ahead Or Drag Race Sprint?

Things just aren't getting better for legacy media overall when it comes to actual advertising revenue for all its streaming and linear TV businesses.

Five of the largest traditional media companies including Walt Disney, NBCUniversal and Warner Bros. Discovery, to name a few -- had another dismal second quarter, down 2% in advertising revenue, according to MoffettNathanson Research.

Four of the five legacy media companies were down in advertising results in the first and second quarter of this year. Walt Disney was the only one to show gains in both periods -- up 6% in the second quarter and 4% in the first.

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Positive advertising revenue results are key for Walt Disney to now gain more consistent profitability for streaming -- a crucial piece of the puzzle for all media companies. 

The transition for Disney appears to reveal a clearer path. Its direct-to-consumer (D2C) businesses are now estimated to command a 37% share ($3.7 billion) of the company’s entire total U.S. ad revenue in 2024. Linear TV ad revenue is projected to be at $6.2 billion.

Disney's total advertising revenue for this year is projected to be up 4% ($9.9 billion).

Paramount Global is seemingly in the worst position going forward -- projected to be $1.7 billion for its D2C advertising versus $6.3 billion for its linear TV advertising for 2024.

Paramount was down 9% in ad revenues in the second quarter after a 2% decline in the first quarter. 

Paramount is estimated to see a 5% decline overall in advertising for 2024.

Warner Bros. Discovery is also lagging, sinking 9% in the first quarter in U.S. advertising revenue with a 5% drop in the second quarter. Its D2C business is now estimated to take in $800 million, with linear TV at $5.7 billion -- for a 7% decline overall for the year.

Fox Corp.'s streaming ad business, primarily driven by Tubi, is projected to reach $900 million, with linear TV networks at $4.6 billion.

Next to Disney, NBCUniversal is seemingly finding a somewhat positive linear-to-streaming transition.

This year it comes with the benefits from the Paris Summer Olympics.

For the year overall, MoffettNathanson estimates NBCU will get to $1.8 billion in its direct-to-consumer ad business (Peacock), with linear TV landing at $8.1 billion in advertising revenue. Overall, NBCU is projected to see a 15% ad revenue gain this year. 

And even without the Olympics, NBCU is estimated to see its ad revenues inch up by 1% to $8.7 billion in 2024 versus the year before.

Next year, however, will be a different story. NBCU will see a more drastic linear TV decline -- falling $6.2 billion from $7.3 billion this year -- while streaming will only climb to $2.0 billion from $1.4 billion in 2024.

Overall, ad revenue is projected for a 5% decline.

Add to this an overall industry outlook: Although Disney is seeing less erosion in its linear TV year-over-year than all other companies (perhaps due to ESPN and sports programming). Disney will be just flat in its overall ad revenue in 2025 versus 2024

The bottom line is that legacy media still has a long way to go in transitioning from its linear TV network addiction. 

1 comment about "Linear-To-Streaming Ad Struggles: Long Road Ahead Or Drag Race Sprint?".
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  1. Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, August 26, 2024 at 2:51 p.m.

    Wayne, when you  factor in retransmission fees and other non-ad revenue incomes, the linear TV assets of these five companies now account for at least 80% of their total incomes. In other words, the "legacy TV "business model is not exactly fading away in importance to these "struggling" companies.

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