• by Wayne Friedman , October 30, 2024

U.S. streaming ad revenues are estimated to continue post sharp hikes for the third quarter with a 44% hike, while linear TV networks will sink (excluding the Olympics) -- down 6.3%, according to MoffettNathanson Research.

The July-September 2024 period is projected to see broadcast/cable networks land at $5.1 billion ($6.2 billion including the Paris Olympics), with ten U.S. streaming platforms collectively at $3.5 billion.

Hulu is forecast to continue to lead all U.S. streaming platforms -- up 8% to $807 million -- while Peacock is projected to grow 52% (largely due to the Olympics) to second place with $541 million. 

Amazon is estimated to soar by fourfold vs. the previous year to $441 million, following its Prime Video launch of an ad-option this year. Netflix will be next -- nearly doubling its ad revenue, landing at $429 million. 

This growth comes amid analyst concerns for rapidly declining streaming CPMs -- the cost per thousand viewers -- over the last year for all streaming platforms.

Among the FAST platforms (free ad-supported streaming television), Roku Channel looks to gain 20% to $326 million, and Tubi is projected to add 12% to $240 million. 

Among the top-ten streaming platforms, MoffettNathanson sees Paramount Global’s Pluto TV witnessing a decline -- the only one to do so -- down 4.3% to $221 million.

Robert Fishman, media analyst at MoffettNathanson Research, writes: “We believe Pluto was the only service to see year over year declines in domestic advertising revenues (-4%) due to the aforementioned CPM pressures, falling time viewed, and a continued reprioritization of driving ad dollars on Paramount+.”

Linear cable TV networks in particular continue to be hit hard in the period.

Five major cable TV network groups -- excluding the Olympics -- will sink 10% to $2.7 billion, with major broadcast TV networks slipping 1.3% to $2.4 billion.