Commentary

Alternative Currencies Late 2024 Forecast: Mix Of Sun And Clouds

Discussion and debate over “alternative currencies” keeps mounting. According to a recent survey, 74% of executives continue to feel the marketplace needs to agree on a “shortlist” of providers -- perhaps no more than five.

This comes from an Advertiser Perceptions survey of 200 agency and marketing executives in late July of this year.

Currently, executives are using three alternative currencies on average, and looking to grow to four for the next two years. 

But the good news is that executives are becoming more comfortable with alternative currencies, with 46% saying they are very familiar with those services. This is an improvement from 39% in 2023 and 29% in 2022.

At the same time, the survey concludes that Nielsen remains the leading TV currency.

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For example, around 80% of advertisers support Nielsen’s decision to include streaming platform’s first-party data for live programming because it will improve the accuracy of viewership and true size of audiences. 

In terms of executives testing alternative currencies, nearly 50% believe those efforts are “just as effective as Nielsen,” with 36% saying they are “somewhat” or “much more” effective than Nielsen.

Still, there are issues. Among the obstacles, alternative currencies have limited historical data benchmarks as well as “lack of standardization” of terms and metrics.

Another major consideration is difficulty in planning across multiple currencies.

The absence of a needed ”consensus” marketplace determination is a challenge. Who has the key guidance when it comes to deciding five wannabes?  

That is up in the air. The majority of executives -- also around 80% -- are “somewhat likely” to follow recommendations of the Joint Industry Committee. Hmmm... doesn’t sound like a ringing endorsement. 

Current competitive pressure and a changing marketplace do not allow for an easy way for all this to happen. It could begin with clearing up industry terms -- the word “currency,” for example -- and if not measurement and other issues will continue. 

Still, what about the bigger picture? Marketers would like an easier approach, but that might not be to everyone’s liking. 

So should it be put up for a vote somewhere? Or perhaps a more drastic step can be taken: the business may be looking for a "commissioner," as in Major League Baseball or the NFL, to make a decision for everyone.

Right now, more time is needed to sort out the good from the bad.

Until then it’s a more customized, more complex media-buying world.

In sports parlance: Take an easy swing to connect with the ball to get on base or perhaps a more positive and calculated screen pass to gain some yards.

3 comments about "Alternative Currencies Late 2024 Forecast: Mix Of Sun And Clouds".
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  1. Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, October 31, 2024 at 1:48 p.m.

    Wayne, according to various estimates I've heard, the alternative currencies for national TV buys involved about 3-5% of the TV ad spend, which, if true, means that most buys used only Nielsen ratings as the basis of their audience" guarantees.

    So when this survey finds that a substantial percentage of its respondents think that the alternative metrics are as good as Nielsen I am wondering how this can be---especially as none of them provide raw "audience" data as far as I know. And they are not even measuring the same thing.

    Even stranger is the finding that on average, respondents are now using three currencies. How can this be if the percent of ad dollars involving such alternative currencies is as low as I've been hearing?

    Finally, if a seller is cutting deals based on three "currencies" what happens if the guarantees are fulfilled  on two of them but not the third? Is the seller's "penalty" reduced to a third or is the buyer repaid as if that one currency represented the entire deal?

  2. Bruce Haymes from Coleytown Advisors, October 31, 2024 at 4:07 p.m.

    Usually that 3-5% number is used to state how budgets for measurement are set as a percentage of overall ad sales by publishers. So if macro (entire market) ad spend is $100B, the total budgeted measurement spend by publishers is about $3-5B. Nielsen is about $2B measurement revenues. That leaves about $1B+ up for grabs from alt measurements and currencies. Not sure Comscore, Videoamp, iSpot, Samba, EDO and the few others gets to that $1B level but usually when I see 3-5% and measurement, I'm thinking that it's primarily a market sizing analysis for measurement.

  3. Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, November 1, 2024 at 7:22 a.m.

    Bruce, the percentage cited by various parties might have been 10% or even 20% if the alternative currencies were being used at scale. It has nothing to do with advertising-to- sales ratios. All they mean is that if the national TV ad spend is $50-55 billion for linear and CTV combined, only $2 billion or maybe, $3 billion, of that amount  involved alternative currencies in the time buying negotiations. 

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