Live sports and other events will help to double advertising revenue at Netflix to $3.2 billion in 2025, according to estimates from New Street Research.
It estimates 56% of 2025 results will come from the U.S. and Canada -- $1.8 billion (up from $913 million).
“We think the two most important variables to achieving this -- or not -- are U.S/Canada MAUs [monthly active users] and CPMs [cost per thousand viewers],” says Dan Salmon, media analyst of New Street.
While he projects that U.S./Canada MAUs will grow to 38.1 million (from 22.3 million in 2024), he estimates CPMs will fall around 10% -- to $30 from $33.
Ad revenues in the Europe/Middle East/Africa territories are expected to hit $815.9 million, with Asia-Pacific rising to $370.8 million and Latin American countries at $224.4 million.
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Overall, Salmon projects 50% of new member growth at Netflix in 2025 will come from ad tiers -- with Netflix adding 24.3 million net subscribers (11.8 million no-ad and 12.4 million ad-supported) in 2025, growing to 316.3 million.
In five years time --2030 -- New Street sees Netflix growing to $9.3 billion in revenue, representing 16% of total yearly revenue at the company, with $4.7 billion coming to U.S./Canada.
Monthly active users in the U.S. and Canada to rise to 41.9 million (2025) to 71.2 million (2030).