• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, February 6, 2025

While we don't know if the Super Bowl will produce another TV viewing record, the betting line may give us a clue.

The betting handle across all legal/regulated U.S. markets is projected to grow more than 15% to a record $1.4 billion in legal wagers, according to the American Gaming Association.

When including all forms for betting for the big game, results are also expected to be higher. The AGA said there were $23 billion in bets for the game a year ago.

Thirty-eight states, including the District of Columbia, officially legalize sports betting.

And for the first time, according to industry estimates, New York is estimated to top all states in betting on the Super Bowl -- $183 million -- including topping perennial number one state, Nevada, which will reach an expected $170 million.

Illinois and Florida will follow with $104 million and $100 million, respectively.

Can we roughly derive Nielsen-measured viewership from any of this data?

Nearly 225 million Americans in nearly 40 states have access to Super Bowl betting. Last year the American Gaming Association estimated 67.8 million American adults (26%) bet on Super Bowl LVIII.

For the 2024 Super Bowl, Nielsen said there was a record 123.7 million viewers a year ago and older average-minute viewers on CBS, Univision, Nickelodeon, Paramount+ and other digital services.

Data here also included covering an estimated 66% of U.S. out-of-home viewers. This year promises more -- now covering 100% of U.S. out-of-home viewers.

Should we assume that Nielsen’s "Big Data+ Panel" results will mean more? That means factoring in tens of millions of Americans from automatic content recognition (ACR) smart TV data.

So should we expect another record? Yes. Especially with returning high-profile team matchups.

The upcoming Super Bowl, featuring the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles, will take place in New Orleans on February 9, and will air on Fox, Tubi, Fubo and digital platforms.

Perhaps there will be a growing array of niche bets this year -- say, for the most valuable player on the winning team -- as to whether he will spike a football in the end zone, pick up his child, and/or kiss his wife and say “I’m going to Disneyland!”