• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, March 20, 2006

If the upfront is Election Day, then last week was New Hampshire for network executives. In development meetings, they launched campaigns touting their fall schedules, hoping to persuade media buyers that they're ready to fortify current weak spots with new hits.

At ABC, the pipeline includes comedies starring ex-sitcom headliners Bonnie Hunt, Ted Danson, and Patricia Heaton. There's also a drama about female attorneys in the vein of "Desperate Housewives" and a thriller linking a U.S. official with a dead Syrian diplomat.

But as the network mulls its 2006-07 lineup, the most intriguing question isn't which new single-camera comedy or ensemble soap will be picked up, but what it will do on Thursday night--television's most lucrative spot for programmers. Would ABC make a bold move and shift growing hit "Grey's Anatomy" to Thursday in a bid to capitalize on the slipping competition and capture a greater share of those abundant ad dollars?

Just a few months ago, ABC's chances of becoming a factor on Thursdays seemed farfetched--sort of like the odds of a reality show with ballroom dancing and fringe celebrities becoming a hit. But "Dancing with the Stars" became last summer's number-one show, and continued to dazzle when it returned for an eight-week run on Jan. 5. ABC sought to exploit the gap between seasons of CBS's "Survivor"--the new season premiered Feb. 2--by slotting "Stars" on Thursdays at 8 p.m., and it became ABC's most successful show on the night in years.

Then last week, lightning struck again. The premiere of ABC's reality show "American Inventor" took advantage of weak competition on CBS, which aired the NCAA Basketball Tournament, and propelled ABC to a Thursday victory in the 18-to-49 demo--its first by one measure since 1991.

Indeed, ABC has seen ratings for the night climb 43 percent in the 18-to-49 demo since "Stars" returned in January. For the season, ABC is the only Big Four network to post year-over-year gains on Thursday in the coveted demo with its regularly scheduled programming. While the leader CBS has dipped 7 percent and former number-one NBC continues its slide, dropping 30 percent, ABC has increased by 50 percent. To be sure, percentage gains are easier to make when starting with such low ratings--the WB, for example, is up 111 percent but will soon be extinct--but ABC has narrowed the gap with second-place NBC by three rating points in only a year, putting it within striking distance of at least the runner-up spot.

"There's a transition going on," said Jeff Bader, ABC's executive vice president of program planning and scheduling. "When we go into our scheduling meetings in May, we're obviously going to have to really focus on Thursday because we know if we put the right show in a time period--it's not even that we can get our foot in the door--we can actually be number one, which would have been unheard of."

Unheard of for decades. Since the launch of "The Cosby Show" until last season, NBC held a stranglehold on the night, maintaining the lead in the 18-to-49 demo even as its schedule turned over. Then last season, CBS capitalized on the post-"Friends" era and moved to number-one, where it now holds the type of commanding lead NBC once did.

Thursday draws heightened focus because it generates the most ad revenue per hour of any night, according to data from TNS Media Intelligence (Monday is a distant second). Traditionally, three major categories have been willing to pay a premium for Thursday placement in order to spur sales over the weekend: Movies, retailers, and automotive. Movie advertisers often fork over huge amounts to make last-minute buys in the scatter market if release dates change or they find a film hasn't generated the hoped-for awareness levels, further sweetening the networks' take.

"Thursday night is the highest revenue-producing night of the week and it will remain so for years to come," said Leland Westerfield, managing director at Harris Nesbitt.

For ABC, the night has long been a tripwire. With the exception of some success in the heyday of "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire," the network has struggled mightily for decades. Last fall, it attempted to make some headway by counter-programming with niche dramas "Alias" and "Night Stalker," followed by news magazine "Primetime," a 10 p.m. staple. As usual, the lineup faltered early, with "Night Stalker" quickly canceled and "Alias" not even cracking the top-100 shows.

On the revenue side, ABC has also staggered. Although CBS is now the ratings leader, NBC still pulled in the most revenue on the night in 2005 by 14 percent ($943 million--actually the most by any network on any night due to its historically high pricing levels there), according to TNS. ABC, however, was woefully behind second-place CBS, trailing by 182 percent.

Mike Shaw, ABC's president of sales and marketing, was coy on the subject in a brief interview at the AAAA's Media Conference earlier this month. "I'd like to have better ratings on every night, but Thursday would be great," he said. Shaw said the network has "some assets we can deploy" on Thursday, including "Grey's Anatomy," but the decision would be up to ABC's entertainment executives.

In any case, "Stars" gives ABC a Thursday beachhead, particularly as competition in the 8 p.m. hour is in flux. Ratings for "Survivor" are down this season by double-digit percentages, and NBC will have to re-program the hour next fall with "Will & Grace" departing and new comedy "Four Kings" failing to catch fire.

ABC, however, can only run "Stars" for a maximum 16 weeks of the 36-week season, assuming it opts to air two rotations. Because of the show's format, it's locked into an eight-week cycle. Of course, airing it twice risks ratings dilution--something ABC is wary of after "Millionaire" fell victim to overexposure. So, ABC will have to decide whether to go with the "Survivor" model of two series within a season, or the "American Idol" strategy of sticking to one. In either case, ABC would have to find a companion show to go with "Stars" for the 20 weeks it's not on the air. If "American Inventor"--a Simon Cowell-produced search for the next great invention--proves to be more than a one-night wonder, it could fill that role.

Even before "Inventor's" surprising performance, ABC had been dropping hints of a renewed commitment to becoming a player on Thursday. For the next four weeks, it will air special episodes of its top-10 show, "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition," at 8 p.m. It also tested "Grey's Anatomy" on Thursdays twice in February with repeats, and met with some success.

"If ABC can plant a flag on Thursday night, they're going to try and do it," said Scott Haugenes, senior vice president, group director, national broadcast at Initiative.

Perhaps the easiest--albeit a risky--way for ABC to do that would be to move Sunday smash "Grey's Anatomy" to Thursday. ABC says it's made no decisions on whether it would move the hit to Thursday or another night, although the network acknowledges it's something that will be considered. But there are many reasons why leaving "Grey's" in its current slot might be a missed opportunity.

Although the show has clearly benefited from its "Desperate Housewives" lead-in--a case could be made it would have never taken off had it not followed the mega-hit--it no longer needs the help. "Grey's," in fact, started outdrawing its lead-in even before "Housewives" faced competition from HBO's "The Sopranos." And twice this season, an original "Grey's" followed a repeat of "Housewives" and performed strongly.

"'Grey's Anatomy' is no longer going to benefit from 'Desperate Housewives,'" said Brad Adgate, senior vice president and corporate research director at Horizon Media. "Viewers are finding it without the lead-in."

Moving "Grey's" to another night and back an hour to 9 p.m. would allow ABC to ignite two new programs. It could slot a promising drama behind "Grey's," while doing the same after "Housewives" on Sunday.

"You can move one strong show away from another and put yourself in a very strong position," said Chris Geraci, director of national television investment at OMD. "If 'Grey's Anatomy' were standing all by itself on Sunday night, that would probably be a much tougher decision for them to make."

Of course, the downside of moving "Grey's" to Thursday is the increased competition it would face. In its likely 9 p.m. slot, it would tangle with CBS's "CSI," which draws more than double the ratings of "Crossing Jordan," the toughest time-slot competitor for "Grey's" on Sunday. "CSI," however, has shown some weakness with an 8 percent ratings slide this season, and "Grey's" outdraws it in the 18-to-49 demo. The move would, however, break up ABC's potent Sunday lineup, which the network has turned into a powerful revenue generator.

"I wouldn't mess with success," said Meenah Hulsen, broadcast buying director at GSD&M.

There's also one wild card that could upend the playing field on Thursday night for every network: "American Idol." Fox aired the phenomenon on three consecutive Thursdays starting Feb. 23, with dominant results each time. A move by Fox to slot the show on Thursdays starting next January would probably leave everyone battling for no better than second place.

In the end, ABC may be most likely to move "Grey's" to Monday nights, where it could be a new tentpole after 36 years of "Monday Night Football." Monday is second behind Thursday in terms of network revenue per hour, according to TNS. In part, that's because the night is television's most watched (Thursday is actually fifth) and some retailers, which re-stock stores on Tuesday, like to have a presence there--as do DVD marketers, since new releases come out the next day. If "Grey's" moved to Monday, it would also benefit from promotion during "Housewives" the night before.

"You have to look at every night and see what night would make the most sense--where you have the best opportunity," said ABC's Bader. "And that's what will inform our decisions."