ABC's Drama Behind Cameras Rivals Its Performance In Front of Them

When ABC begins its fall season, the most significant drama won't be any of the ones on the schedule. It will be the behind-the-scenes drama that has plagued the network and parent Walt Disney Co. in the years since the fall of "Who Wants To Be a Millionaire?"

The struggle for control of the Walt Disney Co. took center stage a few months ago, as two dissident ex-directors made the annual shareholder's meeting a referendum on the Magic Kingdom's direction. Yet CEO Michael Eisner survived, and apparently thrives. But the same can't be said of the two top executives at ABC, Lloyd Braun and Susan Lyne, who lost their jobs a month ago in the power struggle over the network that has been mired in fourth place.

The problems run deep at ABC--where not only the ratings leave a lot to be desired but also the financial results. Disney has told Wall Street that it hopes ABC will be profitable by the end of next year, but the most recent quarter didn't live up to expectations. ABC's revenues declined 5 percent to $1.3 billion in the quarter ended March 31. Many buyers think ABC's work is cut out for them.

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"There's a lot of work to be done over there," says Brad Adgate, senior vice president of research at Horizon Media in New York.

Adgate estimates that ABC needs to replace 10 hours of prime time programming in the fall--which is more than every other broadcast network, with the possible exception of Fox. Its only two solid performers--"Monday Night Football" and "The Bachelor"--are only partial-season shows. There has been some success with the family-oriented comedies, but its success with dramas has been bleak: ABC hasn't had a new drama succeed in two years. "Alias" has been renewed, but more on the strength of its critical acclaim and cult status than anything else. "The Practice," which underwent a major cast reshuffling around this time last year, is expected to give way to a spinoff starring James Spader and William Shatner next season. And next year is widely expected to be the last season of "NYPD Blue," which has been a solid performer for ABC since the early 1990s.

Although its comedies have done a little better, ABC hasn't had the breakout hit that executives had hoped for. One of its best-performing comedies, "8 Simple Rules," veered into tragedy after star John Ritter died unexpectedly last fall. "8 Simple Rules" soldiered on with the rest of its ensemble cast, and is likely to return. Other comedies, including "The Bonnie Hunt Show," will also return, but others have been disappointing.

"The unfortunate thing is that their schedule has been declining at the same time as they've been having management issues," says Stacey Lynn Koerner of Initiative Media. "It cuts across the entire issue of what's really wrong here. I wouldn't necessarily say that Susan Lyne was doing a bad job. It requires a lot of patience that a lot of networks don't have."

Now that job falls to a new management team led by Anne Sweeney and George Bodenheimer, as well as new prime time chief Stephen McPherson. But they might not have a lot of time to turn ABC's fortunes around, as his predecessors preached stability to the schedule, and look what happened to them.

"I think people will be looking for a pretty quick fix," says Susan McClellan, national broadcast manager at Cincinnati-based Empower Media Marketing.

The new management team's first task: Get a hit. That will be easier said than done, as ABC has watched from the sidelines as other networks caught that fabled lightning in a bottle.

"One or two really good shows can change the fortunes of a network," notes Lyle Schwartz, senior vice president and director of research at Mediaedge:cia in New York. That may be easier said than done, he notes. McPherson's going into the upfronts with a development slate that was assembled by the previous round of executives. Schwartz says the new team needs to figure out what direction they want to go in, and then move that way.

"They need a balance of programming," Schwartz says. "I expect them to continue working with all the genres to try to produce the best schedule they can. I don't expect them to give up on the dramas."

Empower's McClellan thinks that ABC has some of the most compelling dramas in development, some of which might be announced today. They include "Desperate Housewives," a soap opera set in a suburban cul-de-sac starring Teri Hatcher, Felicity Huffman, and Sheryl Lee. Others of interest include "The Practice" spinoff, "Blind Justice"--starring Ron Eldard and Rena Sofer--and a limited series called "Empire" that is set in Rome of 44 B.C.

Not that success will happen overnight.

"Even with a new crew there it's going to take them awhile," says Kristi Argyilan, executive vice president and director of media at Boston-based Hill, Holliday. While she likes the idea of the family-night comedies, she says it hasn't translated into must-see TV. And there's little on the boards that Argyilan thinks will catch fire, at least in the fall.

"That really shows you how deep the pain of the situation runs for them," she says. "We're not expecting anything big to come out in their program presentations, unless they've got some mid-season stuff that shows some good potential. It usually takes a network a couple of years to turn around."

Horizon's Adgate sees ABC going against its policy of stability that was in effect last season, instead planting seeds and seeing what grows.

"They have nothing to lose. They're in fourth place," he says.

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