• by Wayne Friedman , David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, July 17, 2006

The $6.2 billion upfront advertising cable market has slowed to a glacial pace. "Basically, it's a stalemate," said one sell-side cable executive. Media agencies are standing firm, saying they want significant decreases in the cost per thousand viewer (CPM) prices versus a year ago.

"The market has absolutely no life," said another cable advertising network executive. "Agencies are pressing for negatives." They don't want to see a plan, he added, "unless there is a negative number attached."

So far, few sales executives have revealed any deal prices. Still, media buying and selling executives say some established networks, such as Turner, Discovery, and A&E, are anywhere from 40 percent to 50 percent sold toward their respective upfront goals.

But what are their goals? Cable network upfront sales objectives could range from selling from 50 percent to 70 percent of their entire commercial inventory. Cable executives are saying deals that are already inked have been at flat pricing versus a year ago.

Neither Turner or Discovery had any comments. Mel Berning, A&E's executive vice president of advertising sales, would only say: "The marketplace pricing in general is flat."

Some reports have surfaced that major agency groups that made initial deals at flat or plus 1 percent CPM price increases now want to redo those agreements at pricing rollbacks versus a year ago. Many cable networks are angry and balking, saying they prefer to stick to the original agreement. "The agencies smell blood in the water and are going to push for the negatives," said a cable sales executive. The sellers, meantime, are asking "why should things be in the negative?"

Cable executives say OMD USA, the large media-buying agency, is very bearish, spreading the word that average cable market program prices should be at 4 percent below last year's numbers. This has cable ad sellers standing still.

"All the dollars are registered," said Bill Abbott, senior vice president of advertising sales for Hallmark Channel. "But nothing has happened. We see the market as being positive. Agencies don't see it that way."

Another cable sales executive expressed concern that the longer cable networks hold out, the better chance for syndication advertising sellers to steal some cable upfront ad dollars.