• Ad Age, Thursday, October 26, 2006 11:45 AM

If you take a look at the history of media, Google's dominance isn't so extraordinary. Think TV. NBC, which along with CBS controlled 85% of the airwaves, was ordered by the Federal Communications Commission to sell one of its two broadcast networks, which became ABC. After that, the three networks reigned until News Corp. came along with Fox. Then cable made it possible for more players to enter the TV game. And of course, earlier this decade, cable surpassed broadcast in both ad revenue and prime-time ratings.

Google's "dominance" is estimated to be 25 percent of total online ad revenue this year. Let's be clear: Google dominates one facet of Internet advertising--text-based search and contextual, the accelerated growth of which is unsustainable forever.

Even in search, is it possible for Google to maintain its dominance? Net history says no. Microsoft's Internet Explorer eventually crushed Netscape; Yahoo eclipsed AOL as a portal, and then tried to move into search, eventually losing out to Google. Now, Yahoo is losing out on ad revenue as social networks and other content providers rise. What does any of this have to do with Google? Maybe nothing. But time shows that history tends to repeat itself.

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