• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, December 5, 2006

Executives at NBC and CBS offered contrasting views Monday about the fate of the traditional upfront--one suggesting it could be losing steam, the other seeing a reinvigoration this spring.

Jeff Zucker, head of NBC Universal's television group, echoed a theme bandied about recently in the agency-sales nexus: The traditional upfront is lessening in importance as buying increasingly moves to a year-round process. But CBS Corp. CFO Fred Reynolds said during a separate appearance at an annual Credit Suisse conference that with scatter pricing in the fourth quarter above upfront levels, the buying community may spend more in the 2007-08 upfront to avoid a repeat.

"Customers are looking for different ways to buy, and we have to be open to that. If that means less upfront and more deals in a different kind of marketplace, then we're OK with that," Zucker said.

If, however, the upfront is undergoing a change in focus, Zucker doesn't deem it moribund.

Many buyers have said they're holding back upfront dollars in order to take advantage of the constant stream of digital and newfangled opportunities that arise midseason. In that vein, Zucker said NBCU is delivering, with two examples this week not available in the upfront: the launch of CNBC.com and an exclusive sponsorship of last night's "Nightly News," which was taken by Philips.

Zucker said scatter pricing at NBC "appears to be pretty strong." Reynolds, however, offered a rosier picture--calling fourth-quarter scatter "strong," with low-volume upfront advertisers in categories such as packaged-goods, pharmaceuticals and cosmetics buoying the market.

As a result, he suggested that advertisers in those categories and others might increase upfront spending next spring in order to avoid gambling that the scatter market will be soft and lose out. "People will probably say, 'Maybe the upfront market is more efficient.' "

Johnson & Johnson, which markets both packaged-goods and pharmaceuticals, sat out the traditional upfront last spring and may be contributing to higher scatter pricing.

However, one potential deterrent to advertisers moving more aggressively in the upfront could be another skirmish over how to attach a value to ratings generated by viewers who watch via DVRs. While ABC was the only network that pressed fiercely resistant buyers to pay for ads watched via DVRs last spring--eventually abandoning the stance as other networks didn't push for it--Reynolds suggested that CBS may take a harder line come May.

He said at least some of the increased viewers that watch shows via DVRs aren't zapping the commercials, creating a situation where CBS is "delivering free goods."

"We ought to get paid for it and ... we'll have a stronger position in the 2007-08 upfront," he said.