• Ad Age, Tuesday, March 27, 2007 11 AM

The "super duper" Tuesday on tap for the presidential primaries next year could bring some big changes to the way political ads are bought -- and possibly even their content. With so many huge states like New York and California moving up their primaries to Feb. 4, it could give the broadcast-TV networks a piece of the action for the first time in years, while boosting cable and national radio.

At the same time, local TV stations may see cutbacks in buys while the ads themselves may contain broader appeals. More than a dozen states plan to hold primaries on that date. And while candidates aren't likely to get any more money as a result, they are apt to change their spending priorities as the sheer number of markets -- and high costs of some -- could torpedo the usual approach of buying market by market.

Evan Tracey, COO of TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group, says it's still not clear whether the state switches will help or hurt the importance of the four earliest: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. But once held, media, rather than organizing, will be the way to reach voters. "It's going to be media-driven. There isn't enough money to do precinct-by-precinct organizing," Tracey says.

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