• by Wayne Friedman , May 7, 2007

Just weeks before the upfront market is set to start, syndication's top shows this season are showing the same problems as network programs--almost all down versus last year's numbers.

For all syndicated shows, looking at live-only household ratings, syndicated shows through April 8 averaged a 2.4 rating--down 11% from last year's 2.7. "This isn't so bad," says Brad Adgate, senior vice president and corporate research director for media agency Horizon Media, when analyzing syndicated programs over the last two seasons, losing 4% from a 2.5 number in 2005.

Compared with normal TV broadcast erosion, analysts say these numbers are virtually flat. What isn't included is any DVR-added viewership, which has increasingly become a factor for TV shows. Still, the syndication business has taken great pains to note that, versus cable or broadcast networks, their viewers' DVR syndication shows far less.

Some of the big syndie losers include "Everybody Loves Raymond," down 16% in its regularly scheduled airings to a 7.0 household live rating from an 8.3 in the 2005-2006 season. "Seinfeld" has sunk 27% seasonally to a 5.1 rating from a 7.0 a year ago. "Friends" has fallen 34% to a 4.3 rating, from a 6.5 the year before.

"Some of the better stuff is starting to fade," says Jason Kanefsky, senior vice president of national broadcast for media agency MPG. "Those shows are not as dynamic as they used to be. There is nothing new coming out. If you think about talk shows, "Rachael Ray" is doing a 2 rating. I wouldn't call that a hit."

Still, other first-run top shows aren't fading as fast. CBS Television Distribution's perennial industry leader "Wheel of Fortune" is down just 1% to an 8.5 rating. Its game-show tag-team partner "Jeopardy" is also down slightly, just 1% to a 6.7.

On first appearance, "The Oprah Winfrey Show" would seem to have taken a big hit, off 10% to a 6.5 rating. But media analysts say of all syndicated shows, "Oprah" is probably the most time-shifted. When added back, her ratings would show only modest declines.

Of the top 25 shows or so, only "Entertainment Tonight" climbed 6% to a 5.6 from a 5.3. Heavy entertainment/celebrity scandals this year, from Rosie O'Donnell to Don Imus, may have spurred viewers to watch.

Other top notables include "Judge Judy," down 4% to a 7.1 live-only household rating, and "Dr. Phil," down 6% to a 5.0 rating.