• by Wayne Friedman , June 26, 2007

Syndication programmers began making upfront deals Monday, hopeful that the industry's quick commitment to doing deals with commercial ratings puts them in good stead with media buyers for the long term.

"I want to be right in line with how the media planners worked with the broadcast networks," said one veteran syndication advertising sales executive, who made some upfront deals. The executive expects virtually all deals to be done with C3 guarantees: commercial ratings plus three days of DVR viewing.

Estimates are that syndication may have completed from 15% to 25% of its expected upfront business so far--with cost-per-thousand (CPM) increases in the 3% to 9% range, versus pricing of a year ago. Syndication hopes to gain a bit more than 5% in overall volume, climbing past its $3.0 billion take of 2006. All syndication business should be completed this week.

Syndication programmers anticipate their daytime, prime-time programming will garner high single-digit CPM--in the 6% to 9% range. Some daytime program deals have already been done at those levels. One daytime program might get into the double-digit increase range: CBS Television Distribution's strong freshman show "Rachael Ray."

Prime access programs and off-network sitcoms, such as "Seinfeld" and "Friends," are poised to take in lower numbers in the 4% to 5% range. Many off-network sitcoms in syndication have struggled with big double-digit ratings drops this season.

Overall, syndication has fewer problems with deals linked to C3, since their programming falloff is minor--1% to 2% in most cases. Most of syndication's shows--especially that of daytime shows--are viewed live. Cable networks, on the other hand, have anywhere from a 5% to 12% decline in commercial rating viewership versus that of their respective program rating numbers.

Like last year, syndication deals are occurring just after the network upfront--which is good news, according to syndication advertising sales executives.

Years ago, syndication moved before the broadcast part of the upfront. But according to one executive, it was difficult to judge the strength of the market because the bigger piece of the TV advertising pie--the broadcast networks--always moved later.