• by Wayne Friedman , June 29, 2007

Are commercial ratings viable for local TV stations? Nielsen has had discussions about it--but don't look for it anytime soon, according to company officials. "There are no immediate plans for commercial minute ratings in local markets," said a Nielsen spokesman.

However, media agencies would welcome them. It would make sense to compare deals with commercial ratings guarantees from broadcast, cable and syndication programmers for their national clients.

Local TV commercial ratings would be used to track performance for an advertiser--just like with the networks. But unlike network guaranteed deals, which promise marketers specific gross ratings points, commercial ratings would just be used as a barometer, since local TV stations rarely offer specific audience guarantees.

For the most part, local TV stations' newscasts would be affected. But little research has been offered that examines how viewers respond to commercials versus programs for local TV.

"I don't think Nielsen can provide C3 ratings locally yet or in the very near future," said Brad Adgate, senior vice president and corporate media director for media agency Horizon Media. "The LPM (local people meter) markets are still processed quarter-hour to match diary markets. Sometime down the line, say in five years or so, when diaries are eliminated, we may see commercial minute ratings locally."

There is also the issue of new measurement technology that hasn't been distributed to most of the country. Nielsen currently has 10 local people meter markets--and it's looking to rise to 25 by 2011.

Other media agency executives don't think commercial ratings for local TV stations would work. "They would have to monitor every local station," says Janice Finkel-Greene, executive vice president of broadcast strategy for Initiative, New York. "Therefore, they would need to monitor all local minutes in 210 markets. The challenge is the issue of granularity."

Finkel-Greene says there is already a large degree of statistical error in LPMs--about 10% to 20%. And with LPMs in only 10 markets, data would have to be provided from other local stations that still have set-top meter boxes with handwritten diaries. Statistical errors for these markets would be worse.

With those kind of inaccuracies, "data would generally be difficult to interpret," she says. "I'd like to see them get those quarter-hour ratings right first."

Local TV stations depend on syndicated daytime shows, where they get a healthy supply of advertising inventory, versus that of network-supplied local spots to sell. National TV research for those talk shows indicates there is little audience erosion when moving from program to commercial content.

Nielsen hasn't done much preliminary research in the area of local TV commercial ratings. But in looking at DVR usage--an issue sometimes linked with commercial ratings--research shows there is little time-shifting of news shows or sports shows.