• by Wayne Friedman , September 7, 2007

The Television Bureau of Advertising touts a strong 2008 for TV spot revenue thanks to two biennial factors: big political and Olympic advertising. But when it comes to estimates, TV spot revenue won't be higher than two years ago.

The station ad group predicts local TV revenues to climb 9% to 10% next year--with business from large national advertisers growing a hefty 14% to 16%. Local TV business will pull in about 5% to 6%, says the TVB.

But all this would be less than the 2006-year--the last time a big political and Olympic season hit. Then, total spot-TV revenues shot up 11.5% to $18.7 billion. TV benefited heavily that year from a crazy-high spot advertising market that rocketed up 21.5% in the fourth quarter.

Good news for TV stations' Web site and wireless advertising businesses--they will continue to soar, up 40% to 50% for Internet, and 50% to 75% for wireless. It should be noted that these increases will be coming off very small revenue bases.

Network advertising will climb 4% to 6%, a bit better than estimates for 2007. Both network cable and local spot cable will also see high hikes--each growing anywhere from 5% to 7%. TV syndication will have the least growth, according to the TVB, up 3% to 4%.

TV advertising estimates for 2009, however, will be a different picture--somewhat akin to what will go on this year. Total TV spot advertising is anticipated to decline anywhere from 2% to 4%--with national spot taking the biggest hit, off an estimated 8% to 10%. Other national TV mediums will be about flat. Network will be down 1% to up 1%; syndication from zero growth to 2% higher; and national cable, doing the best, up 1% to 3%.