The coming sea change is due, in part, to the robust growth in digital revenues, with Outsell forecasting 17.9% growth in digital ad revenues in 2007, contributing to 22.5% overall electronic revenue growth (this includes subscription products). Outsell sees this growth tapering off slightly in coming years, with 17% growth in 2008, 13% in 2009, and 10% in 2010.
However, the growth in online revenues comes at the same time as repeated declines in print revenues, with Outsell forecasting slumps of 5% in 2007 and 2% in 2008. Since 2005, Outsell has print revenue's share of total revenue falling from 48.9%, or $9.26 billion, to just 32.6%, or $8.14 billion. As noted, Outsell expects the crossover to come in 2009, when digital revenue will account for 38.6% of total revenues, or about $9.15 billion.
Thus, digital revenue growth will be largely responsible for the forecast 5.8% compound annual growth rate in B2B revenues from 2007-2010. In fact, Outsell sees an increase in the annual growth rate over those four years, from 5.1% in 2007 to 5.6% in 2010, thanks to growing demand for business information. (That's driven by external economic factors, including unstable oil prices and Asia 's economic expansion.)
Outsell also forecasts steady 6% annual growth in B2B event revenue, though not at online levels. In 2010, event revenue will account for about the same proportion of the total as it does now: 27.2%, or $6.8 billion.