• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, November 1, 2007

It's a tough time to be a laundry detergent. Environmentalists are encouraging people to wear clothes longer before tossing them in the hamper and offering easy recipes for homemade detergents. The government wants consumers to lower their energy bills by using their washing machines less often. And now, a brand new report from Packaged Facts says that the growing trend of telecommuting, with so many people toiling in their unwashed jammies, may be about to throw yet another wrench into the spin cycle.

Still, even with that kind of pressure, Packaged Facts is predicting that sales of laundry-care products will register small gains in the years ahead, and reach $9.7 billion by 2011.

The researcher says detergent sales are expected to remain flat in 2007, with a 12% decrease in powdered detergents offset by a modest 3% increase in liquid detergents. Liquid laundry detergent, which drove the market through 2006 as marketers introduced new concentrated products, will continue to grow. (Wal-Mart's recent announcement that it would banish all powdered detergents in favor of more energy-friendly concentrated liquids will likely keep this trend going.)

Procter & Gamble continues to have a stranglehold on the industry--with 54% of IRI-tracked sales in 2006, adding 4 percentage points in the 2002-06 period. PF reports that Unilever runs a distant second with 10% of IRI-tracked sales, which declined 2.7 percentage points in the same period. P&G also led the way in ad spending, shelling out $96.1 million for its Tide brand, $38 million for Downey and $30.2 million for Gain.

(Earlier this week, P&G reported its quarterly earnings and said net sales in its fabric and home care division jumped 10%, to $5.9 billion, propelled by the liquid laundry detergent compaction launch, and the launch of Tide Pure Essentials.)

But P&G is fighting hard for those gains, as more and more forces are becoming just a little anti-laundry. The government's Energy Star program estimates that the average household does almost 400 loads of laundry a year and is educating consumers that doing fewer partial loads and more full-sized ones is more cost-effective. Household sizes are changing. And environmentalists are increasingly asking consumers to rethink the "If I've worn it once it must be dirty" philosophy that has long ruled in American households.

And just as casual Friday cut into laundry in the early 1990s, telecommuting--which PF says is now a reality at 44% of all companies, and includes 24 million Americans--further reduces the need for fresh duds every day. "If the telecommuting trend continues to flourish, people will be washing fewer items, and the laundry care industry could be in for a surprise," the report notes. "Laundry care marketers may want to think about stressing the benefits of personal care as more people enter a day-to-day situation where the pressures to make oneself presentable have been eliminated and all that remains is a heap of old T-shirts with a laptop on top."

The report also predicts more launches, including those that offer some perceived health benefit, such as aromatherapy. Packaged Facts reports that 85 new products launched in 2006--a 40% increase from the prior year. The words commonly used in marketing these launches-- biodegradable, no phosphates, fresh and natural--will likely continue to be major themes.