• by January 11, 2001

Two leading forecasters expect more moderate growth in ad spending next year as the economy slows, after the Olympics and presidential election helped make 2000 a banner year. Growing concern about slower advertising growth has been a major factor weighing down the stocks of major media companies.

Robert Coen, director of forecasting at Universal McCann, said he expected national advertising spending in all media formats to grow 6.3% to $151.8 billion next year. This year, national advertisers planned spending of $142.7 billion, up 11.8%.

"We think the media marketplace looks pretty strong," Coen said at an annual media conference sponsored by UBS Warburg, the Swiss bank that recently acquired the PaineWebber brokerage. Despite the gradual slowdown, Coen said, he still expected advertising spending as a percentage of gross domestic product to increase this year, as it has for every year since 1994.

"There's going to be some bounces, but generally the century is getting off to a good start," Coen said. "We remain optimistic."

The other forecaster, Zenith Media chairman John Perriss, predicted that global advertising spending would grow 6.0% next year to $351.7 billion, following a 7.9% increase this year to $331.8 billion.

"We're in for a gradual soft landing," Perriss said. "We see a gradual coasting down rather than running into a wall."

Perriss, while acknowledging that 2000 probably represented a peak, thanks to strong economic growth and other factors, he said advertising outlays were showing less sensitivity to economic cycles than in the past.

"Advertising usually is seen as a cyclical business that overreacts to booms and recessions," Perriss said. But we see a trend that marketing is a 'must have,' a fixed cost for industries."

Perriss predicted slight declines a few years further out, with 5.9% growth in 2002, and 5.6% in 2003.

Coen predicted that cable TV would see the greatest growth in national ad spending next year, up 12.5% following a 20% surge this year. He expects newspapers to see a 7% increase next year on the heels of a 13% rise this year.

The four TV networks are expected to see only 1% growth in ad spending following a 12.5% increase this year, as ad budgets were fattened with political advertising, the Olympic Games and advertising by Internet companies.

However, David Poltrack, head of CBS' planning and research, said he expects ad spending for all four networks to increase 7% next year.

"As we close out the year we are beginning to hear a chorus of gloom-and-doom speculation concerning both the short term and long term television advertising market," he said. "I don't buy it."

Poltrack said many negative forecasts were based on figures for the fourth quarter, when many ad budgets had already been tapped out by the Olympics. But he said the current fall season, which started late this year, was already showing promising numbers.

In local advertising, Coen said he expe