• by Wayne Friedman , January 7, 2008

With the Screen Actors Guild now ready to honor the picket lines of the writers union during this week's Golden Globes awards ceremony, analysts say there's a strong likelihood that TV network NBC, which is televising the event, will be abandoning the show.

An NBC spokeswoman would only say: "No decision has been reached at this point." Analysts say NBC appeared to be reversing on its previous stance that it would telecast the awards, even with stars unwilling to cross WGA picket lines.

Late last week, before the SAG's announcement, no advertisers abandoned the show or asked to be moved from the program which airs on January 13, according to industry executives. Another NBC spokeswoman had no comment about the advertising status of the show.

The Writers Guild of America has been threatening to picket the red carpets of all award shows this season, with many performers inclined to support the writers by staying home. Early predictions--some from supporters of the writers' union--have said NBC could be hurt by the poor turnout and some advertiser rejections.

Media-buying executives have a different perspective. They say the focus is really all about broadcast ratings--which have been in short supply this season, given the eight-week strike.

If NBC were to go ahead and get an exemption from the WGA, media-buying executives think advertisers would continue with the show.

"Look at late-night TV," says Geoff Robison, senior vice president of national broadcast for Santa Monica-based Palisades Media Group. "Late-night shows came back with higher ratings after the first of the year." He says the same thing could occur with many award shows.

Factor in that the Golden Globes airs on NBC, the network that is virtually out of sale when it comes to prime-time programming and other areas. That means advertisers have few places to turn. Estimates are that the unit price for the Globes is around $500,000 for a 30-second commercial.

Where would TV marketers place their media dollars if they could get them back from NBC, asks Robison? NBC has little inventory to give advertisers in other prime-time shows, he notes. Similar conditions exist for many other networks. With few places to turn, marketers are set to keep what they have--especially with few high-profile, fresh TV programs to turn to in the first quarter.

Robison estimates the show probably won't be hurt ratings-wise. Last year, the Globes averaged a 6.5 rating/15 share in adults 18-49 and 20 million viewers overall--the telecast's best numbers since 2004.

The show might even see a ratings rise. With the prospect of a lot of unscripted comments by performers in regard to writers, networks and producers, viewers might want to tune in--especially those who have not watched before.

"There could be the train-wreck mentality," says Jason Kanefsky, senior vice president, group account director at MPG. "People might want to watch."

Still, some advertisers shy away from events that can be unpredictable.

"It all depends on the sensitivity of the advertiser," says Brad Adgate, senior vice president, corporate research director for Horizon Media. "Also, what they think the audience delivery is going to be."