• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, February 11, 2008

A new survey shows that while many retailers are hoping Valentine's Day might provide a much-needed sales spark, consumer spending may well be more frugal than passionate.

While men say they are planning to spend a little more than last year ---$95 compared to $92 in 2007--women are cutting back, and say they intend to plan to spend just $67, compared with $74 last year, reports TNS Retail Forward, a consulting group in Columbus, Ohio.

And by category, plans to pick up traditional Valentine gifts are either down (as is true with greeting cards and candy) or flat (flowers and fragrances.) "It's still an important day," says Ayuna Kidder, an economist at TNS Retail Forward. "And consumers will spend something. They just won't spend as much."

Only 61% of men plan to buy a card, for example, compared with 69% last year, and only 40% will buy candy, compared with 44% last year. Flowers and perfume--also V-Day standbys--both came in flat, at 49% and 6%, respectively. A few smaller categories registered slight gains, including fine jewelry (12%, compared with 10% from last year), lingerie (8%, compared to 6% from last year), and clothing, up to 7% from 5% last year.

But for women, gift plans declined in every single category except for fine jewelry, with 5% planning to buy someone a little bling--up from 4% last year.

Another poll of consumer intentions, released by the National Retail Federation last month, turned up similar trends. However, it projects somewhat higher spending, an average of $123 per person, with men spending $163 on the holiday, and women shelling out $85.

That still makes Valentine's Day a $17.02 billion holiday, and a red-letter day for many products.

Take chocolate. Valentine's Day continues to be the biggest day of the year, says Nielsen. Even with declines in purchase intentions, Nielsen predicts that candy sales will show an increase in dollar values, with consumers spending $323 million on chocolate during the holiday week. (That compares with $322.7 million during last Valentine's week). Total candy sales are likely to decline by a candy heart or two, to $414 million, from $414.6 million a year ago.)

There are strong geographical differences. Nielsen says people in Atlanta spend 48% more on chocolate than would be expected for a city of its size, followed by Denver and then Cincinnati, Louisville, Ky., Houston, and Dallas.

Of course, Valentine's Day also creates other retail ripples: Nielsen reports that sales of pregnancy tests spike six weeks after Valentine's Day, with the third week in March ranking No. 1 for both pregnancy and fertility test kits.